Airlines activate contingency plans in response to fuel shortages: the impact on Spanish exports and logistics

Royalty-free stock photograph created by Christian Harb and Unsplash.

Logistics and Air Transport

The global aviation industry is preparing for a potential aviation fuel shortage, a measure that threatens to trigger a domino effect in supply chains. Analysis of this situation reveals a direct impact on logistics costs, delivery times, and the competitiveness of Spanish exporting companies.

---

The global air transport industry has sounded the alarm amid growing fears of a aviation fuel (kerosene) shortage, according to an analysis by the newspaper Financial TimesMajor airlines are already designing and activating contingency plans to mitigate the impact of a disruption that could have significant consequences for international trade and, in particular, for the Spanish economy, which is highly dependent on tourism and air exports.

This situation forces companies to focus on the crisis management and adverse scenario planninga practice that is becoming an operational standard in an increasingly volatile geopolitical and energy environment under the current administration of Donald Trump en Estados Unidos.

Crisis management: the new normal for the airline industry

The contingency plans being considered by airlines are not trivial and include a range of drastic measures. These strategies focus on ensuring operational continuity and controlling a potential cost escalation that would ultimately affect the end customer, both passengers and cargo.

The main lines of action include:

• Route rationalization: Cancellation or reduction of frequencies on less profitable routes or routes with higher fuel consumption.
• Load optimization: Prioritizing high-value, high-margin goods to maximize the profitability of each flight.
• Searching for alternative supplies: Agreements with suppliers in different geographies to diversify fuel sources and avoid dependence on a single market.
• Financial hedging: Contracting financial instruments to fix the price of fuel in the future and protect against extreme price volatility.

The domino effect in the Spanish supply chain

To EspañaThe implications of this threat extend beyond the aviation sector. A disruption in the kerosene supply or a sudden price increase would have a direct and severe impact on the supply chain nationally. Key sectors of Spanish exports, such as textiles, pharmaceuticals, automotive components and, especially, perishable products (fruits, vegetables and fish), depend critically on the agility and reliability of air transport.

An increase in air freight costs or a reduction in available cargo capacity could reduce the competitiveness of Spanish exports compared to producers in other regions. Furthermore, territories such as the Islas Canarias y Baleareswhose connectivity and supply depend vitally on air transport, would be especially affected, impacting both the flow of goods and tourism, a pillar of their economy.

The main sectoral risks for Spanish companies are detailed below:

Affected Sector	Main Risk	Recommended Contingency Action
Agri-food (Perishables)	Loss of the cold chain, delivery delays, increased costs.	Explore multimodal transport solutions and renegotiate terms with clients.
Fashion and Textile	Delays in the delivery of collections, affecting the «fast fashion».	Audit the resilience of logistics operators and diversify routes.
Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Professional	Risk in the supply of high-value and temperature-sensitive products.	Secure contracts with specialized freight forwarders and with robust contingency plans.
Tourism	Flight cancellations, increased ticket prices, and reduced connectivity.	Diversification of source markets and promotion of longer stay tourism.

Key points and frequently asked questions about the aviation fuel shortage

How does this situation affect the export costs of a Spanish SME?

Directly. An increase in the price of kerosene is passed on almost immediately to fuel surcharges (fuel surcharges) applied by airlines and freight forwarders. An exporting SME must prepare for a increase in their logistics costsThis could reduce their profit margin or force them to pass the price on to the end customer, diminishing their competitiveness.

What should Spanish companies do to prepare?

Foreign trade experts consulted by Empresa Exterior They recommend a immediate supply chain auditIt is essential to speak with logistics operators to learn about their contingency plans, assess alternative routes and means of transport (sea-air, rail) and, if possible, increase safety stock levels in strategic markets to mitigate potential delays.

Is this a temporary problem or a long-term trend?

Although a temporary shortage may be circumstantial, the increasing volatility in energy markets and geopolitical tensions suggest that uncertainty is a structural factor. The current situation in 2026 reflects a trend toward the need to build more resilient and less dependent supply chains of a single mode of transport or geographical corridor. Proactive planning and management of logistical risk are no longer an option, but a strategic obligation.