A new trade framework has been sealed between the European Union and the United States following negotiations held in Scotland last weekend. The pact redefines the rules of the transatlantic game, imposing a tariff of 15 % on European goods destined for the North American market, a measure that affects industries as important as the automobile, olive oil, and semiconductor industries.
In return, products from the United States will enjoy tariff-free access to the European common market. This asymmetry is one of the keys to an agreement that, according to its proponents, seeks to provide stability, but which has raised significant concerns in the industrial and economic fabric of the old continent.
The agreement excludes certain products considered strategic from this new regime. Thus, pharmaceutical products, aircraft and their components, as well as certain chemical products and semiconductor manufacturing equipment, will be exempt from tariffs in both directions. However, the high tariffs of the 50 % on steel and aluminum remain unchanged, continuing the pressure on the European metal sector.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen defended the pact, emphasizing the security it provides in an uncertain global context. "The agreement reached today creates certainty in uncertain times. It provides stability and predictability for citizens and businesses on both sides of the Atlantic.", she declared. Von der Leyen insisted that the 15% flat rate is a significant step forward: “We have maintained a single tariff rate of 15% for the vast majority of EU exports […] This 15% is a clear maximum. No additional quotas. All-inclusive. It therefore provides much-needed clarity for our citizens and businesses, which was absolutely crucial.”.
From across the Atlantic, the view is decidedly more triumphalist. US President Donald Trump was blunt in stating that “US products will not face any tariffs upon entry into the EU.”He also highlighted the energy component of the agreement, describing it as a commitment by the EU to “buy US liquefied gas and nuclear fuel for $750.000 billion”.
Along with this massive energy commitment, which must be realized in the next three years, the agreement includes a promise of European business investment in the United States worth 600.000 million, although its implementation is unclear as it depends on the will of the private sector.
Criticism and the cost of non-tariff barriers
The agreement has not been received unanimously. European analysts interpret it as a considerable concession to pressure from Washington. Jesús Núñez, co-director of the IECAH, defines it in a single word: "Resignation. I think that's the word that defines the agreement right now, with the attempt to convince us that it could have been worse and that, therefore, it should satisfy us.". Along the same lines, Federico Steinberg, researcher at the Elcano Royal Institute, questions the viability of the investment commitment, describing it as “a kick forward”, in as much as "The European Commission cannot order any company to make any investment. This has to do with market conditions.".
A key point of the debate is whether Europe could have obtained a more advantageous agreement. Experts point out that the elimination of more no duty barriers on the part of the EU—such as technical regulations, complex health regulations, or bureaucracy—would have strengthened its negotiating position. These internal barriers represent an annual cost to the European economy of more than one trillion euros, raising prices by 110 % in the services sector and a 45 % in manufacturing.
Economist Daniel Lacalle is critical of the European strategy: "By accepting 15% tariffs instead of eliminating all their non-tariff barriers, U.S. partner countries are acknowledging that they prefer cost to reducing the power of politicians.". Lacalle goes so far as to suggest that, with greater flexibility, "The European Union could have agreed to tariffs of 10% like the United Kingdom or lower.".
Brussels has opted for a cautious approach, prioritizing the protection of its regulatory sovereignty and sensitive sectors, even though this has meant accepting a trade agreement that, in terms of market access, clearly favors the United States.
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