Cesce identifies five major risks to global trade in 2026, a strategic analysis tool

Cesce presented the eleventh edition of its "International Panorama Report" in Madrid, a strategic analysis tool developed by its Country Risk Unit. The event, held on June 17, 2026, outlined the main geopolitical and economic trends that will shape the immediate future, identifying five areas of tension: the Taiwan enigma, the Generation Z revolutions, sovereign over-indebtedness, disputes over maritime routes, and the complex dilemma facing the European Union in relation to the United States and China.

The event was opened by Pablo de Ramón-Laca, CEO of Cesce, who emphasized the need for Spanish companies to incorporate the risks of an increasingly fragmented international landscape into their strategies. “We live and operate in an international environment characterized by friction and the decline of multilateral cooperation. In this paradigm shift, Spanish companies cannot afford to be mere observers,” he stated, highlighting the report as “an ideal compass for continuing to open markets with boldness, strength, and confidence.”

The enigma of Taiwan and its dependence on microchips

One of the greatest risks to the global economy lies on the island of Taiwan. According to Rafael Loring, economist responsible for Asia at Cesce Country Risk, its importance goes beyond its strategic position on the front line of US defense in the Pacific. The real danger lies in its near-monopoly on semiconductor manufacturing. "The great risk that Taiwan poses to the entire world is its monopoly on microchip manufacturing," Loring explained. The Taiwanese company TSMC controls more than 60% of the global semiconductor market and more than 90% of the most advanced chips. According to the analyst, "an interruption of this factory would cause a brutal disruption to the world, and there are estimates that it could generate a contraction of global GDP unseen since World War II."

Generation Z and discontent in emerging markets

Social instability in developing countries has a new protagonist: Generation Z. Lidia Candal, the economist responsible for Africa at Cesce Country Risk, pointed out that although each protest has its own specific triggers, there is a common origin. "The common origin of all these protests is the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent inflationary crisis," she stated. This discontent over the rising cost of living is compounded by factors such as the high level of digitalization among a generation of digital natives, their significant demographic weight, and widespread frustration with corruption and political inefficiency, creating fertile ground for instability.

The silent power of debt and the role of China

With global debt now exceeding $350 trillion, three times the world's GDP, borrowing has become an instrument of power. María José Chaguaceda, economist responsible for Latin America at Cesce Riesgo País, analyzed China's growing role in this new financial landscape. Although she believes the yuan is "far from rivaling the dollar" due to the lack of liquid financial markets and full convertibility, she highlighted Beijing's increasing influence. "Thanks to its large savings capacity, China is positioning itself and gaining more weight in debt restructurings," she stated. This financial power, according to Chaguaceda, "is more silent than military power, but at times it can even be more effective."

The European Union's dilemma: between the US and China

The European Union finds itself at a strategic crossroads, pressured by its two largest trading partners. Ricardo Santamaría, director of Country Risk and Debt Management at Cesce, described the challenge: “One of its main trading partners, the United States, is erecting a tariff wall, and the other, China, is becoming increasingly aggressive in its trade.” Santamaría noted that in the last ten years, China has doubled its trade surplus with the EU, while the United States has halved its trade surplus with the EU. Given this situation, he concluded that “the European Union is obliged to react and become the architect of its own destiny, to discover its capabilities and open a frank dialogue with both powers.”

Tensions on shipping routes, arteries of global trade

The report also highlights the growing fragility of global supply chains due to tensions at strategic points in maritime trade. Pablo Arjona, economist responsible for the Middle East at Cesce Riesgo País, noted that 90% of global trade is transported by sea. "Marine spaces are the arteries that sustain the flow of the economy," he stated. Conflicts such as the Red Sea crisis have demonstrated the system's vulnerability, causing "profound distortions in value chains" and highlighting that control of the oceans remains key to global hegemony.

Key Questions and Answers

What are the main geopolitical risks to the global economy according to the Cesce report?

The Cesce International Panorama Report identifies five main risks: global dependence on Taiwanese microchips, social instability driven by Generation Z in emerging countries, the use of sovereign debt as a tool of power by powers such as China, tensions on key maritime routes, and the strategic dilemma of the European Union in the face of US protectionism and competition from China.

Why is Taiwan a critical point for the global economy?

Taiwan is crucial because of its dominance in semiconductor production. The Taiwanese company TSMC manufactures more than 90% of the world's most advanced chips. A blockade or conflict on the island could disrupt the global supply chain for technology, automotive, and other sectors, triggering an economic crisis of a magnitude not seen since World War II.