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Climate Risk and Supply Chains
The Fitch Ratings rating agency warns that the El Niño climate phenomenon threatens the credit ratings of the transport sector in Latin America, a scenario that directly impacts Spanish infrastructure operators with a presence in the region and imports of agricultural raw materials.
The credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has issued a report warning of the risks posed by the arrival of the climate phenomenon El Niño It represents for the solvency of the transport and infrastructure sector in América LatinaAccording to analysts Astra Castillo, Fernanda Rezende y Yee Man ChinThe associated extreme weather events can compromise both the physical infrastructure and the demand for freight movement, generating downward pressure on the credit ratings of companies in the sector.
The main risk factor, according to the analysis, lies in the demand for transport in logistics corridors with a high dependence on agriculture. The phenomenon of El Niño It has the potential to severely harm agricultural production, which would translate into a decrease in cargo volumes. The agency specifically points to highway concessionaires with a strong presence in agribusiness as the most vulnerable, since their revenues depend directly on traffic generated by crops. Fitch recall the precedent of the 2024 drought in the west-central region of Brasilwhich affected harvests, reduced traffic and caused downgrades in the ratings of several companies in the sector.
Direct implications for Spanish companies
This scenario presents a direct challenge for large Spanish construction and infrastructure operators with significant exposure in América Latinaas the ACS, Ferrovial o SacyrThe potential drop in traffic volumes on their highway concessions and the possible disruption to port operations could affect their cash flow and, consequently, put pressure on their balance sheets in the region. Furthermore, the report points out that many concession contracts include "force majeure" clauses for weather events, which could lead to complex contractual rebalancing processes with local public authorities.
Beyond the impact on operators, the agency's warnings have a second consequence for the Spanish economy through the supply chain. A disruption in the production and export of Latin American agricultural commodities, such as soybeans, coffee, and fruit, would directly affect importing companies and the Spanish agri-food sector. Operations at the main Spanish ports that channel these trade flows could also be disrupted by irregular arrivals of goods. The seaports of origin, according to FitchThey also face physical vulnerabilities due to damage to access roads or increased dredging and maintenance needs caused by flooding.
However, the analysis distinguishes different levels of risk within the transport sector. Rail companies have the lowest exposure, maintaining a structural advantage in demand even during periods of poor harvests. In the Brazilian market, for example, rail concessionaires benefit from contracts with guaranteed minimum payments (known as "take-or-pay") and minimum volume agreements with their main clients, which significantly mitigates revenue risks associated with fluctuations in agricultural production.
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