There is an outdated concept in risk management: thinking that a crisis begins when an event "occurs".

Recent experience shows that, in reality, It starts much earlier, at the moment an organization is forced to make decisions (restricting movement, activating protocols, evacuating personnel, closing a facility, reconfiguring routes…) with incomplete information and with time ticking. For this reason, The impact no longer depends solely on the event itself, but on the chain of decisions that it sets in motion..

The recently published Crisis Management Annual Review 2026 by Special Contingency Risks (SCR), an integral part of Willis, illustrates this with data: in 2025, threat notifications grew by more than a third and now represent 37% of managed incidents. Political repatriation, meanwhile, accounted for 19% of the total. In other words, increasingly, The risk manifests itself as an early warning sign (threat) and as an operational necessity (moving people).That's not a statistic, but a clue about how the corporate crisis is being rewritten.

The key point is that the total volume of incidents doesn't need to skyrocket for the world to become more difficult to manage. In fact, the report indicates that the frequency remains relatively stable, but the workload is increasing. There were 10% more clients assisted compared to 2024This suggests more prolonged or demanding crises in terms of coordination, information, and response.

One only needs to look at the conflict in the Middle East to see it clearly. One of the most significant peaks in 2025 occurred during the Iran-Israel episode in June, which triggered a surge in repatriation requests and advice. Today, with an escalation that is once again straining the environment, the mechanism is the same: even before direct harm materializes, organizations are forced to act (reviewing travel plans, redefining routes and stopovers, adapting to airspace restrictions or operational changes in transportation, and reinforcing security measures). The pattern, therefore, is clear: Fewer closed incidents and more scenarios that drag on and consume resources.

Geography changes, but the logic repeats itself.

The geography of risk is not homogeneous, but the underlying logic is. In 2025, sub-Saharan Africa again accounted for the highest number of reported incidents for the third consecutive year, representing more than a quarter of all incidents. Nearly half originated in the Democratic Republic of Congo, amid ongoing conflict, disease, and crime. North America followed closely, Latin America remained stable, and Europe and Asia-Pacific continued to have the lowest relative volume, consistent with 2024.

What is relevant for a company is not just "where it happens most", but what it implies. When a region concentrates risk, it also concentrates decisions regarding continuity, mobility, security, and supply chain.And when that risk becomes routine, The crisis ceases to be an exception and becomes a component of the operating model.

Europe: fewer protests, more structural tension

The European continent, for its part, offers a perfect example of why it's important to look beyond the numbers. In 2025, 23.261 episodes of civil unrest were recorded, 10% fewer than in 2024. This figure could be interpreted as an improvement, but the report introduces a more useful nuance: France remains the main focus of instability and could see new peaks in conflict due to the local political cycle. Furthermore, Germany, Italy, and Spain continue to show high levels of protest. Looking ahead to 2026, an increase in mobilizations led by Generation Z is expected.

Metrics of Disturbances in Europe (2025)	Data and Projections
Total number of episodes recorded	23.261 incidents (10% less compared to 2024)
Countries with high levels	France (main focus), Germany, Italy and Spain
Strategic Forecast 2026	Increase in social mobilizations driven by Generation Z

Translated into business language, There may be fewer episodes in total, but more underlying pressure.And underlying pressure is not managed with a plan for a major crisis, but with the capacity to absorb repeated disruptions: complicated access, affected mobility, reputational strain, regulatory pressure, and polarization that alters the business environment.

Furthermore, this tension is compounded by a particularly newsworthy phenomenon: the rise in violent kidnappings linked to individuals with cryptocurrency holdings in France. Beyond this specific case, the message is structural: Organized crime is becoming more sophisticated and increasing its brutality.And Europe is no longer perceived as a “safe zone” from certain violent financial risks. This idea alone forces a review of assumptions such as public exposure, executive security, protocols, and coordination with authorities.

 

Russia–Ukraine: Hybrid warfare enters business management

If there is one risk that exemplifies the leap from incident to sustained disruption in Europe, it is war. The Russia-Ukraine conflict remains the main structural threat, and the Willis report anticipates the persistence of Russian hybrid warfare against European countries and NATO. Thus, The risk is no longer just military; it manifests itself in cyber, energy, logistical, and reputational layers.with particular exposure to sectors such as transport and defense. Even under ceasefire scenarios, the report raises the possibility of increased hybrid activity: interference, destabilization, pressure on infrastructure, and campaigns aimed at eroding response capacity.

For companies, this redefines what it means to "be exposed"; not only because of a direct presence in a country, but also because of dependence on routes, energy, critical suppliers, technology, and public perception.

 

Latin America: deterioration, militarization and kidnapping as financing

In Latin America, the report describes a more fragile security environment and increased militarization. In practice, this translates into concrete operational decisions: changes in mobility patterns, a greater need for preventative measures, and, in some cases, alterations to air and sea routes that impact timelines, costs, and logistical planning.

Added to this is a particularly sensitive element: kidnapping as an alternative means of criminal financing. For companies with deployed personnel, local operations, or supply chains in the region, this situation necessitates strengthening prevention and response capabilities (travel policies, protocols, and coordination with suppliers).

 

The idea that should remain on the management agenda.

Ultimately, what's changing isn't just the type of risks, but how they materialize. Today, many crises don't begin with a major incident, but with a series of signals and constraints that force action. In this context, disruption is measured in reaction time, information quality, and the cost of anticipation.

Precisely for this reason, for senior management, Crisis management is no longer a manual, but a capabilityAt Willis, we firmly believe in building before the alarm sounds: by testing scenarios (not just documenting them), integrating security and continuity into governance, and accepting that risk no longer behaves linearly. The competitive advantage in 2026 will not be avoiding crises. It will be recovering faster, making sound decisions, and preventing manageable issues from escalating.

By Diego Gómez-Arroyo,

Director of Special Crime & Crisis Management for Willis in Spain and Portugal. Head of Crisis Management Sales for Willis in Latin America.

Key points and frequently asked questions about this analysis

Why is it claimed that the traditional concept of corporate crisis has become outdated?
Because crises no longer begin solely with a disaster or direct event. In today's environment, crises start earlier, manifesting as early warnings and threats that force organizations to make critical mobility and operational decisions with incomplete information.

What specific emerging risks are detected in the European continent in the lead-up to 2026?
Although general civil unrest decreased by 10%, significant structural tensions persist. These include the risk of renewed spikes in instability in France, Germany, Italy, and Spain; a projected increase in Generation Z protests; and the growing sophistication of organized crime, exemplified by violent financial kidnappings linked to cryptocurrencies.

How does the evolution of hybrid warfare impact companies without a physical presence in the conflict zone?
Hybrid warfare completely redefines corporate risk exposure. Its impact shifts to cyber, logistics, and energy layers, meaning any corporation can be affected due to its reliance on critical suppliers, international trade routes, energy resources, or global public perception.