The world economy is in a inflection point marked by the political uncertainty, but international trade and investment flows remain surprisingly robustThis is the main conclusion drawn from the special update of the report. DHL Global Connectedness Tracker, developed by DHL in conjunction with the New York University Stern School of Business (NYU Stern).
The analysis, which processed more than 20 million data, highlights that, although the wave of tariff increases by the United States under President Trump's second term has generated friction, has failed to curb the dynamism of global trade.
Solid Growth Despite Tariff Obstacles
The report highlights that the world trade grew at a faster rate in the first half of 2025 than in any other half since 2010, once the post-pandemic rebound effect is discounted. This phenomenon is partly explained by a wave of advance purchases in the United States before the tariffs came into force, but the volumes they stayed above from 2024 levels even after this trend reverses.
Looking ahead, the outlook remains optimistic. The study's composite forecast puts the annualized growth rate for global trade volumes between 2025 and 2029 at 2,5 %. This data practically coincides with the rate recorded in the previous decade, which demonstrates the adaptability of the global ecosystem.
One of the key reasons for this resilience is diversification: in 2024, only 13% of global imports were headed to the US. Moreover, most countries has not imitated Washington's sweeping tariff increases.
Differentiated Regional Impact
Although tariffs were expected to reduce the projected growth rate for the 2025-2029 period from 3,1% to 2,5% globally, the impact has not been uniform. North America has been the region with the steepest downward revision, going from a growth forecast of 2,7% to just 1,5%.
In contrast, growth forecasts have been revised upward all with South America, Central America, the Caribbean, the Middle East, and North AfricaThe study suggests that most of these countries face minor US tariff increases, and in the case of the Middle East, a benefit is anticipated from increased oil production and exports.
John Pearson, CEO of DHL Express, emphasized the strength of the market in this context: “Despite all the obstacles, the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker highlights the enduring strength of global trade. Trade barriers never benefit international commerce, but the creativity of buyers and sellers around the world who want to do business with each other should never be underestimated.”
Globalization Does Not Go Back
international investments, the data for the first half of 2025 were mixed, but no withdrawal trend was detected of companies from foreign markets to domestic ones. The proportion of cross-border mergers and acquisitions remained stable.
Steven A. Altman, a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business and lead author of the report, debunked the myth that globalization is in retreat: "Trends in international trade and business investment so far in 2025 do not support the view that globalization has reversed. While it would be a mistake to ignore current political threats to globalization, overall, businesses are not withdrawing from international markets.".
Another myth that has been debunked is the alleged regionalization of tradeThe report reveals that trade not only It is not becoming more regional, but the average distance traveled by traded goods has reached a new record of about 5.000 kilometers. The share of intraregional trade fell to a historic low of 51%.
Finally, despite geopolitical conflicts, the analysis does not show a major division of the world economy into rival blocs. Although US-China ties are weakening, the world has not substantially reoriented its trade ties along clear geopolitical lines. The global level of connectivity measured by the report (trade, capital, information and people) is located at 25 %, practically unchanged compared to its historical maximum of 2022, a clear indication That the globalization remains at record levels.
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