Global trade registered a surprising dynamism in the first half of 2025. Despite the political uncertainty and the growing geopolitical tensions , world trade increased by more than $500.000 billion, equivalent to an annual increase of between 2% and 2,5%, according to estimates from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
This good behavior was based, fundamentally, on the economic growth of developing countries. Conversely, trade in the most advanced nations remained at levels similar to the same period of the previous year.. The increase was especially notable in key sectors such as Power Plants and Electronic componentsFor the second half of the year, UNCTAD anticipates similar behavior, forecasting a boost from the growth of the global economy and the expected increase in prices. However, the organization warns that the tightening of trade policies and the increased geopolitical frictions These are variables that could slow down activity.
The bilateral relationship between Mexico and Peru has reached a critical point Following the granting of asylum by the Mexican embassy to former Peruvian Prime Minister Betsy Chávez. Chávez, Pedro Castillo's last chief of staff, faces charges of conspiracy and rebellion for the attempted dissolution of Congress.
Mexico invokes the right of asylum, arguing that it seeks to protect Chávez from what it considers political persecution. In response, Peru has described the measure as an act of interference in their judicial processconsidering that the charges are of a criminal nature and not political.. Peru's response was forceful: it broke off diplomatic relations, expelled Mexico's Chargé d'Affaires, and declared Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum a national enemy. persona non grata. Tensions have remained high since the dismissal of Pedro Castillo, to whom the Mexican government has given constant support.
Philippines declares a state of national calamity due to Typhoon Kalmaegi
Typhoon Kalmaegi, which struck Cebu Island on November 4, has been the deadliest natural disaster for the Philippines so far in 2025, leaving a death toll of at least 232.. The typhoon caused Flash floodsthe overflowing of rivers, enormous damage to infrastructurepower outages and the isolation of hundreds of villages.
Given the magnitude of the catastrophe, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. declared on November 6th the "state of national calamity". This measure allows release aid funds e impose price caps on basic goods. The Asian country, which was already severely affected by a typhoon last year, is highly vulnerable to the increased frequency and magnitude of these phenomena, a fact that scientists associate with the global warming. Days later, on November 9, Typhoon Fung-wong made landfall, forcing the evacuation of more than a million people on the island of Luzon..
Thailand suspended a peace agreement with Cambodia, brokered by US President Donald Trump, less than three weeks after it was to be signed.. The decision reignites tensions between neighboring countries.. The suspension came after Four Thai soldiers were injured by a landmine explosion near the border.
Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul justified the measure, stating that the incident demonstrated that The security situation had not improved. As a result, Thailand will suspend all terms of the joint declaration, including the planned release of 18 Cambodian detainees.
End of Shutdown in the United States and Tariff Review
After 41 days, the longer administrative closure in the history of the United States came to an end. The Senate approved the funding agreement on the night of November 11 by a vote of 60 to 40.. The pressure to end the paralysis intensified due to factors such as logistical collapse in air transport —with the cancellation of hundreds of flights due to the absence of unpaid air traffic controllers - and the severe social impact in thousands of officials and in the 42 million Americans who depend on food stamps.
The agreement includes the reopening of the federal government until the end of January and a commitment to to pay, retroactively, the salaries of all affected federal officials. However, the concession in the extension of health subsidies of Obamacare has unleashed a severe internal crisis in the Democratic Party.
Furthermore, the Supreme Court will review the legitimacy of several tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) during the Trump Administration. This review could force the Administration to eliminate tariffs and open the door for companies to make claims refunds.
Central and Eastern Europe: Fiscal Instability and Risk for 2026
Central and Eastern Europe is heading towards a 2026 complex. The intense electoral activity, with important elections such as those of Hungary In spring, it could accentuate the fragmentation and instability regional. In the economic sphere, a moderate growth due to weak external demand and industrial stagnation in Germany.
The main risk for the region lies in the fiscal area. Most countries are burdened with large deficits, with nations like Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia having exceeded their 2025 budget targets and now facing the threat of a Public debt on the rise. The case of Romania is particularly alarming, when registering the largest EU budget deficit (more than 9% of GDP). In terms of security, the region prioritizes the investment in defense and the need to secure NATO's eastern flank after Russian airspace violations.
United Arab Emirates and Investment in Artificial Intelligence
Microsoft announced an investment of about $ 8.000 billion in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) between 2026 and 2029, earmarked for cloud and artificial intelligence projects, including the purchase of more than 60.000 Nvidia chips. This agreement represents a key step in the UAE's strategy to position itself as one of the leading powers in the field of artificial intelligence.
Conflict in Senegal over Debt Restructuring
The IMF mission in Senegal concluded without major progress in the negotiation of a new financing program. The sticking point is the possibility of a debt restructuring, which the IMF considers inevitable, but which the Senegalese government sees as unthinkable. Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko indicated his willingness to accept unpopular austerity measures rather than give in to renegotiation. The total public sector debt is estimated at a high 132% of GDP at the end of 2024.
Source: Cesce
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