Solunion Export Risks Report
It has approved emergency deficit cuts for 2017, as promised to the European Commission.
Italy has approved cuts to emergency deficit by 2017, as promised to the European CommissionThe additional cuts amount to €3.400 billion, equivalent to 0,2% of GDP. Thus, the GDP growth forecasts They have been revised slightly upwards, from +1,0% to +1,1%, but have been reduced for next year: +1,0% (from +1,3%).
These measures should allow this year's budget deficit target to be reduced from -2,3% to -2,1% of GDP. In 2016, the fiscal deficit fell to -2,4% of GDP (from -2,7% in 2015), mainly due to lower interest expenditures.
It is estimated that ECB Quantitative Monetary Easing Program has helped to Italian government to save €5.000 billion a year in interest expenses. primary fiscal surplus It increased slightly to +1,5% of GDP in 2016, after reaching +1,4% in 2015. The fiscal target for 2018 has been confirmed at +1,2% of GDP. Given the prevailing risks, such as the fragility of the banking sector, the possibility of early elections, and the weak expected GDP growth (+0,9% in 2017-18), the 2018 fiscal target appears ambitious.
Source: Solunion





