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Maritime freight transport, which channels goods between the 80% to 90% of world tradeThe global supply chain faces increasing complexity and volatility in 2026. Container price dynamics have become a key barometer for understanding the pressures on global supply chains, which have been affected by a series of disruptions that have eroded the sector's stability and predictability.
This analysis, based on a sector report of SolunioIt delves into the factors that influence trade flows and offers a perspective on the evolution of Spanish ports in this challenging environment.
The origin of current volatility: from the pandemic to protectionism
After reaching a record high of $10.377 per container in September 2021, driven by the post-pandemic economic recovery, the sector entered a phase of adjustment. However, far from returning to normal, it has been exposed to a recurring volatilityExperts identify three major catalysts for this instability:
- Impact of the pandemic (2021-2022)A sharp imbalance between global supply and demand generated unprecedented congestion in maritime traffic, putting upward pressure on prices.
- Geopolitical tensionsConflicts such as the war between Rusia y Ucraniathe crisis between Israel y Hamás and, more recently, the Houthi attacks in the Mar RojoThey have altered strategic routes.
- Economic protectionism (2025)The imposition of unilateral tariffs by Estados Unidos under the administration Trump It has increased operating costs and, consequently, final prices.
“The main conclusions we can draw after these years of uncertainty are, on the one hand, the increasing sensitivity of the price to any event; on the other, that there are more and more factors influencing its evolution; and finally, that the volatility range has increased, experiencing price movements that have covered an exceptionally wide range from $1.342 to $10.377 per container,” he states. Santos GutiérrezRisk Analyst of Solunion España.
Lessons from the past: historical precedents in the Middle East
The current crisis in the Mar Rojo and the tensions in the Estrecho de Ormuz These are not isolated events. Recent history offers guidance on the potential impacts and recovery times:
- War Irá Irak (80s)The mining of Estrecho de Ormuz This caused traffic to take between three and four months to return to normal.
- Tensions Estados Unidos Irá (2019)Attacks and sabotage limited activity, which did not recover to 100% until several weeks later.
- lock of the Canal de Suez (2021)The ship ran aground Ever Give It affected more than 400 ships and the resolution of the blockade took about two weeks.
- Houthi attacks (since late 2023)They have caused a drop of more than 50% in traffic due to the Canal de Suezdiverting a large part of the flows through the Cabo de Buena Esperanza, which adds between 10 and 15 days of sailing.
Strait of Hormuz: the critical point of energy trade
El Estrecho de Ormuza passage of barely 40 kilometers between Omá e IráIt is one of the most critical arteries for the global economy. Lacking a viable alternative route, its vulnerability is extreme. The [unclear] passes through this point. 20% of the world's oil (about 20 million barrels per day) and close to 25% of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)Any disruption in this area, largely controlled by Teherá, has immediate consequences, as evidenced by the surge in oil prices (+27%) and European gas prices (+74%) during peak tensions.
Forecasts for 2026: scenarios in an unpredictable environment
In this context, making estimates is complex. Allianz Trade, one of the shareholders of SolunioThis scenario presents a scenario where the conflict and subsequent de-escalation in the region last for several months, reaching August 2026, which would imply a slow recovery of maritime traffic. At the macroeconomic level, forecasts already reflect this caution:
- El FMI has revised its global growth forecast for 2026 downwards, placing it at 3,1%.
- La UNCTAD It anticipates a slowdown in the growth of world trade, going from 4,7% in 2025 to only 1,5% – 2,5% in 2026.
The persistence of this situation of uncertainty acts as a catalyst for high and entrenched inflation.
The behavior of Spanish ports
The 46 ports of general interest in España, coordinated by Puertos del EstadoThey have shown resilience. In 2025, freight traffic remained virtually flat with a slight decrease of -0,2%, a figure viewed positively given the complex global environment. However, the beginning of 2026 shows signs of weakness, with a 1,3% drop in the first quarter.
| Period | Freight Traffic (Tons) | Year-on-year variation |
|---|---|---|
| Year 2025 | 556,6 million | -0,2% |
| Year 2024 | 557,7 million | N/A |
| Q1 2026 | 133,2 million | -1,3% |
Although data from February and March 2026 show some stabilization, the economic and geopolitical framework remains unstable, with risks and threats that have not yet dissipated.
Key points and frequently asked questions about the shipping crisis
How does this situation affect Spanish exporting and importing companies?
Spanish companies are facing a direct increase in logistics costs due to higher freight rates and the imposition of risk surcharges. Furthermore, route deviations are causing longer transit times, leading to delivery delays, potential stockouts, and the need to redesign supply chains to increase their resilience.
What are the main risks to watch for the remainder of 2026?
The main risk is a geopolitical escalation in the Estrecho de Ormuzwhich would have a devastating impact on energy markets and global trade. Other key factors include the evolution of trade policy in Estados Unidos, which could impose new tariffs, and the persistence of inflation, which affects global demand and operating costs.
What alternatives exist to the affected shipping routes?
The main alternative to Canal de Suez It is the route that borders the Cabo de Buena Esperanza en ÁfricaAlthough it is significantly longer and more expensive, air freight remains an option for high-value or urgent goods, despite its much higher cost. In the long term, some companies are exploring land routes such as the "Intermediate Corridor" or diversifying their production centers to reduce their reliance on specific routes.
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