Olive oil consumption is soaring in the US, Brazil and Asia while the Iberian Peninsula is concentrating its olive mills

Olive Oil Market Analysis

The Olive Oil World Congress analyzes the double transformation of the olive oil sector: demand is growing in markets such as the US, Brazil and Asia-Pacific, while the production structure in the Iberian Peninsula is becoming concentrated due to costs, leading to the closure of 500 olive mills in ten years, according to IOC experts and strategic consultants.

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Expert Consejo Oleícola Internacional and strategic consultants have analyzed in the Olive Oil World Congress (OOWC) the transformation of the sector: while consumption is globalizing with EE.UU., Brasil y Asia-Pacífico As engines, Iberian production is concentrated, threatening the viability of hundreds of traditional olive oil mills.

Global demand is shifting away from the Mediterranean

The international expansion of olive oil is no longer a trend, but a consolidated reality. This was explained by Abderraouf LaajimiDeputy Chief Executive Officer of Consejo Oleícola Internacional (COI)who estimated global consumption at 3,2 million tons, almost double that of 1990. "Olive oil has ceased to be solely a Mediterranean product and has become a kind of..." commodity "a global of undeniable value," he noted Laajimi.

Although Europa It maintains close to 60% of consumption, but its share is losing ground to new demand centers. Estados Unidos It leads as the world's top importer, absorbing 35% of the total (between 380.000 and 400.000 tons annually), driven by a strong positioning as a product premium associated with healthy eating.

Second is Brasilwith 8% of global imports (around 80.000 tons). Its main characteristic, and at the same time its vulnerability, is that 99% of its consumption depends on imports, making it a market highly sensitive to the volatility of international prices.

The third engine of growth is the block Asia-Pacífico. Countries like China, Japón, Corea del Sur e India They account for 22% of global demand growth over the last two decades. Despite still low per capita consumption, the long-term potential is immense due to their large population and the rise of middle classes seeking higher-quality products.

An 'economic natural selection' threatens Iberian olive oil mills

In contrast to the expansion of consumption, the productive structure of the Península Ibérica, which represents 65% of world production, faces increasing concentration. Juan Vilar, international strategic consultant, presented a study conducted with the Aula Universitaria Oleícola Innova from the Universidad Internacional de Andalucía which yields a stark prediction: more than 22% of Iberian olive oil mills will disappear in the next decade. The forecast estimates the closure of 200 facilities in five years and up to 500 in a decade.

Vilar He describes it as a "economic natural selection"Of the 2.219 current olive oil mills in España y PortugalA small group of 60 (just 2,25% of the total) already processes a third of all production. These large facilities, with the capacity to process more than 50 million kilos of olives, offer lower processing rates, attracting more volume and reducing their unit costs. This traps the remaining operators in a spiral of reduced activity and shrinking margins.

The recent short harvest seasons have accelerated this process. With product shortages, farmers have prioritized large mills to minimize costs, leaving medium and small mills with unsustainable idle capacity. This has led to the paradox that, even with above-average farmgate prices, many producers have failed to make their operations profitable due to high fixed costs.

Dual Analysis of the Global Olive Oil Market

Key Indicator	Data and Projections	Strategic analysis
Importer No. 1: USA	35% of the global import quota	Mature market with demand for premium and healthy products.
Importer No. 2: Brazil	8% of the global import quota	High dependence on imports (99%), sensitive to price volatility.
Emerging Bloc: Asia-Pacific	22% of global demand growth	Greater long-term growth potential due to demographics and middle classes.
Iberian Concentration (Current)	60 olive mills (2,25%) process 33% of the production	Economies of scale displace small and medium-sized operators.
Projected Closures (10 years)	Disappearance of 500 olive oil mills	22% of the current productive fabric is at risk due to lack of profitability.

Specialize, integrate, or disappear: the options for the sector

The joint diagnosis of Laajimi y Vilar It paints a demanding future. The rise of new markets demands volume, quality, and traceability—conditions that favor large-scale operators. For traditional producers, the message is one of urgency. Juan Vilar Identify four possible survival strategies for olive oil mills that do not belong to that select group.

The first is the specialization in high value-added oils, such as organic or early harvest oils, which compete on quality, not price. The second is the integration in second-tier cooperatives, such as Jaencoop, Dcoop o Interoleoto gain scale, reduce costs, and improve overall profitability. Other options include reconversion in storage and logistics points for larger facilities or, finally, the fusion with local competitors to optimize resources in areas with a high density of mills.

Key points and frequently asked questions about the transformation of the olive oil market

How does this change in global demand affect Spanish exporters?

It represents an opportunity to diversify markets beyond EuropaBut it requires tailored marketing strategies. In EE.UU. The health narrative and positioning are valued premiumWhereas in Asia The challenge is to educate consumers about the benefits and uses of extra virgin olive oil. The ability to offer consistent volume and quality will be key.

What are the consequences of olive oil mill concentration for the supply chain?

In the short term, this could lead to greater efficiency and more competitive prices for large operators. However, in the long term, there is a risk of a loss of diversity in local olive oil varieties, increased dependence on a few industrial players, and potential vulnerability in the resilience of the supply chain if the number of operators is drastically reduced.

What should olive oil SMEs and cooperatives do to survive?

The key is to avoid direct cost competition with industrial giants. They must focus on market niches that value differentiation: origin certifications, organic production, unique varieties, or innovative formats. Integration into larger cooperative structures to gain negotiating power and optimize marketing is another fundamental strategic path for their future viability.