If Poland joins the European Union accepting the conditions proposed by the "fifteen", it will be able to increase its annual economic growth by between 0,7 and one percentage point until 2005.
Poland will receive €3.500 billion in 2004, €4.100 billion in 2005, and €5.200 billion in 2006. The poorest countries in the Union—Spain, Portugal, and Greece—have narrowed the gap with other EU member states over the last ten years, reaching 79 percent of the European average in terms of development. Poland has a much larger gap to close. Currently, its development level represents only 39 percent of the EU average. After Poland's accession to the EU, six of the ten poorest regions in the Union will be the Polish Voivodeships of Lublin, Podlasie, Subcarpathian Region, Warmia and Masuria, Świętokrzyskie, and Opole. The other Polish Voivodeships, with the exception of Masovia, will also fall below the European average for economic development and will be among the 24 poorest regions in the EU. The Masovian Voivodeship, the most advanced of all, represents 64 percent of the average for the enlarged European Union. If the rapid pace of development in this voivodeship continues, the years 2007-2013 may be the last in which Masovian benefits from structural funds. According to EU principles, only regions whose level of development is below 75 percent of the EU average are entitled to structural funds.
Opinion of Polish businesspeople
A survey conducted by the National Economic Chamber among small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) reveals that Polish business owners see EU integration as an opportunity to increase exports, expand their sales market, and raise the technological level of their production. Their concerns are increased competition, lower profits, and the dominance of larger, more powerful EU companies. More than 50 percent of business owners expect Poland's accession to the Union to have a positive impact on the macroeconomic business climate. This includes market expansion, increased capital availability, and improved banking services. On the other hand, there are significant concerns about increased competition, capital flight, and excessive EU regulations (many companies fear increased social security contributions).
Furthermore, according to a poll conducted by the PBS Polling Institute, commissioned by the newspaper "Rzeczpospolita" on February 9 and 10, 70 percent of Poles expressed their intention to participate in the referendum on Poland's accession to the European Union. Of those, 71 percent would vote in favor of joining the EU. Support for EU membership across Polish society—both among those who intend to vote and those who do not—reaches 56 percent.
Consumer optimism is on the rise
In February, the consumer optimism index rose five points. There was a slight increase in spending. More people also have a more positive view of the economic situation. Fears of job loss and rising inflation are less pronounced. According to a survey conducted by the Ipsos-Demoskop institute, the rise in optimism is due to the government's presentation of an economic program and the increasingly tangible benefits of Poland's future accession to the European Union.
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