Raw material shortages and global logistical tensions are reshaping the map of international investments

Cesce Country Risk Report July 13-19, 2026

Increased restrictions on the export of critical minerals , the restructuring of strategic maritime routes such as the Panama Canal, and recent shifts in monetary and security policies paint a complex global picture. Major powers are redesigning their supply strategies, directly impacting economic development, logistics , and international trade for businesses.

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Supply crisis and protectionism in global mining

The price of many critical minerals experienced a significant increase between January 2025 and April 2026 due to severe supply constraints, driving key materials such as copper , tin , and tungsten to record highs. The World Energy Investment report published in July by the International Energy Agency (IEA) reveals that China accounted for more than 70% of the increase in mining production recorded in 2025, demonstrating a strong concentration in the refining industry. Only rare earth elements have shown greater diversification in the market thanks to the entry of new projects in the United States and Malaysia.

Since 2023, Beijing has tripled the number of minerals subject to export controls, citing national security reasons and retaliation for Washington's sanctions. Other key producers have implemented similar measures to maintain high international prices or boost their own domestic industries, as is the case with Mozambique for graphite , the Democratic Republic of Congo for cobalt , and Zimbabwe for lithium . These Chinese controls forced some Western automakers to temporarily suspend operations in 2025. Faced with this risk of shortages, governments in developed countries have quadrupled funding for new mining projects compared to 2023, reaching $65.000 billion . Furthermore, the IEA projects that the push for the recycling industry could cover nearly 20% of supply by 2040.

Logistical challenges in Latin America and political readjustments

In Panama , the combined pressure from the world's two largest powers has unleashed a crisis in the world's largest shipping registry. A Panamanian delegation traveled to Beijing from July 16 to 18 following the Supreme Court's decision to revoke the port concessions in Balboa and Cristóbal granted to the Hong Kong-based conglomerate CK Hutchison . The court ruling, prompted by pressure from the United States—which is threatening to retake control of the canal—led to immediate retaliation from China, which detained 96 Panamanian-flagged vessels in March and 136 in April, citing security concerns. These tensions threaten a waterway that handles 6% of global trade.

For its part, Ecuador has institutionalized its fight against transnational crime through the Comprehensive National Security Plan 2025-2029, spearheaded by Daniel Noboa. The plan reduces the 99 strategies of the previous framework to just seven national objectives focused on territorial control of ports, prison reform, cyber defense, and dismantling criminal economic networks, following a 2025 that ended with a record number of more than 9.000 homicides. This roadmap will prolong the presence of the Armed Forces in the streets, although it lacks a comprehensive budget allocated for its implementation.

In Venezuela , a new round of US-backed political negotiations will begin on August 1, aiming to put the transition back at the center of the agenda after the June earthquakes. Government official Jorge Rodríguez will meet with Dinorah Figuera, a representative of the 2015 National Assembly, to discuss the electoral system and political guarantees, initially excluding leaders such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González from the process.

Strategic alliances, defense and trade in Asia-Pacific

The annual ASEAN summit , which opened on July 20 in Manila, is testing the bloc's cohesion as it addresses the protracted conflict in Myanmar, border tensions between Thailand and Cambodia, and the alarming crisis in the South China Sea. Regional delegations will use the presence of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to demand assurances from the White House regarding its strategy for a "free and open Indo-Pacific . "

Meanwhile, India and Indonesia have taken a key step toward strategic autonomy following the bilateral summit held in Jakarta between Narendra Modi and Prabowo Subianto. Both countries, seeking to project themselves as middle powers, agreed that Indonesia will acquire Indian BrahMos and Astra missiles , and also signed a binding agreement to jointly develop the strategic port of Sabang, a vital infrastructure project located at the entrance to the Strait of Malacca.

In Oceania, Papua New Guinea redefined its influence by announcing the closure of its Taipei Economic Office. Foreign Minister Justin Tkatchenko justified the decision by citing his commitment to the "One China" policy , while assuring that lucrative liquefied natural gas export contracts with Taiwanese firms would not be affected, as his country expands its trade ties with Beijing and maintains its security agreements with Australia.

Impact of the conflict on energy, logistics and hydrocarbons

In Eastern Europe, Russia announced on July 8 a three-week ban on its diesel exports to safeguard its domestic market, after Ukrainian attacks damaged 24 of its 34 largest refineries, taking nearly 60% of its refining capacity offline. Russia, which was projected to account for approximately 11% of global diesel supply by 2025, had already seen a 46% drop in its maritime hydrocarbon shipments during the first half of the year. This crisis has driven up global prices, pushing the premium on benchmark European futures above $60 per barrel.

Simultaneously, the European Union faces internal contradictions, as the 27 member states purchased 9,89 million tons of Russian liquefied natural gas from the Siberian Yamal plant in the first half of 2026, 18% more than in the same period of the previous year, led by France, Belgium, and Spain. This comes months before the total ban on Russian gas contracts is set to take effect in 2027. Furthermore, the 21st EU sanctions package is unraveling: Greece is requesting exemptions for its shipping company Dynagas , while Germany and Portugal are demanding exceptions for Russian fish, leading diplomats to dub the sanctions "the Emmental" due to the numerous loopholes they contain.

In Ukraine , the government continued its reshuffle with the dismissal on July 15 of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, who was responsible for the mass production of drones and the open bidding system designed to reduce arms costs. His departure, which sparked protests across the country, stemmed from tensions with Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi, and he will be replaced by General Khmara.

In the Middle East, the exchange of attacks between Saudi Arabia and the Houthi rebels drastically reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and drove the price of crude oil to $90 a barrel. The Yemeni militia accused Riyadh of bombing Sana'a airport to prevent an Iranian plane carrying a delegation returning from Ali Khamenei's funeral from landing. In retaliation, they attacked Saudi Abha airport with drones, marking the first major clash since the 2022 ceasefire. Despite this backdrop, Oman 's economy held up with 2,6% year-on-year GDP growth in the first quarter, driven by a 4% increase in hydrocarbon exports, as its ports on the Arabian Sea are not dependent on the Strait of Hormuz. The IMF forecasts that Oman will end the year with 3,5% growth.

Investments and infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) formally approved the construction of the monumental Nigeria-Morocco gas pipeline in Freetown . Stretching 6.900 kilometers and with an estimated cost of €23.000 billion , it will connect the Niger Delta's gas reserves to Europe via the Maghreb-Europe pipeline . Operations are slated to begin in 2028, with initial deliveries of its 30.000 billion cubic meters of annual capacity starting in 2031. Operational facilities will be established in Casablanca and Abuja.

Angola , meanwhile, is entering the final phase of its privatization program (PROPRIV), aiming to transfer 10 strategic assets before the end of 2026, including Unitel , Endiama , Angola Telecom , Standard Bank Angola , and TAAG . The plan has already sold some 120 assets for $1.300 billion, although the sale of the state-owned oil company Sonangol has been postponed until 2027, coinciding with the date President João Lourenço is scheduled to leave office.

Macroeconomics and inflation in the United States

Inflation in the United States offered a respite , falling sharply to 3,5% in June from 4,2% in May, driven by a 9,7% drop in gasoline prices. This data eases the pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed), whose new chairman, Warsh, has implemented a monetary policy that refrains from anticipating future interest rate moves, urging markets to set prices based solely on real economic data.

In the political arena, Donald Trump escalated diplomatic tensions by declassifying documents on July 16, accusing the Chinese government of the largest leak in history for allegedly illicitly acquiring more than 220 million voter records in 2020, and blaming the "deep state" for covering it up. US intelligence denies any technical irregularities in the voting process, and Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian called the accusations "pure fabrications" and "malicious slander ," while Trump maintains a cautious silence on potential tariffs ahead of Xi Jinping's visit in September.

Source: Cesce