Rising commodity prices and the firm stance of central banks are reshaping the international trade landscape.

COUNTRY RISK June 15-21, 2026

According to the Cesce Report, the surge in base metal prices due to disruptions in the global supply chain and the historic interest rate hikes in Japan and the US mark a decisive week for the markets. Meanwhile, a surprising diplomatic breakthrough between Washington and Tehran is easing commercial crude oil traffic, while weak consumption in China and profound reforms in Latin America are outlining new challenges for the foreign investment and the foreign trade.

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Raw materials and logistics: between disruption and peace agreements

The international market of commodities It is experiencing strong turbulence. The World Bank's metals and minerals price index rose nearly 20% in the first five months of the year, as a result of material supply disruptions, operational setbacks, and dynamic demand. Aluminum is one of the metals most affected by the conflict between the United States and Iran, given that the Middle East accounts for 7% of global production. Meanwhile, copper recently surpassed $6,6/pound, marking a new all-time high, driven by strong demand linked to both the development of data centers and the progress of decarbonization, in addition to shutdowns at key mines such as Grasberg in Indonesia.

However, the energy outlook for the Middle East region projects signs of stabilization for the logistics and the import of hydrocarbons. On June 17, US President Donald Trump and his Iranian counterpart, Mahmoud Pezeshkian, signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) remotely to end the conflict. Under the agreement, Tehran committed to demining the Strait of Hormuz within the first 30 days. In return, Washington lifted both the military blockade of Iranian ports and the sanctions imposed on its hydrocarbon industry. As a result, several Iranian supertankers have resumed transiting the strait with an estimated cargo of 6 million barrels of oil, and a $300.000 billion program for Iran's reconstruction has been outlined.

On the other hand, Africa's trade balance is suffering in the agricultural sector. In Ivory Coast and Ghana, countries that account for 60% of global cocoa production, heads of state held an emergency summit in response to the severe collapse in prices on international markets.

Restrictive shift in global monetary policy and its impact on financing

the conditions of international financing They are tightening. In the United States, the new chairman of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, debuted by keeping interest rates in the range of 3,50% to 3,75%. Despite the pause, the Fed surprised with a clear restrictive shift (hawkish), completely eliminating its traditional future-oriented language (forward guidance) to prioritize macroeconomic data, driven by a rebound in inflation in May to 4,2%.

In Asia, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 1%, its highest level since 1995. This decision aims to contain underlying inflation and significantly alters the strategy of foreign companies exposed to the yen and Japanese debt.

Macroeconomic adjustments in the Asian market

Domestic consumption in China continues to show significant weakness, a critical factor for global exports. In May 2026, retail sales fell 0,6% year-on-year, registering their first contraction since the end of the pandemic in 2022. To counteract this, Beijing is considering reforming the system. hukouwhich would link access to urban public services to residential registration in an attempt to release liquidity and stimulate consumption, although its effectiveness remains in doubt due to the serious real estate crisis plaguing the country.

Latin America: Investment, reforms and political volatility

The American continent presents a mixed scenario for the international BusinessOn the one hand, Cuba has approved a plan of 176 measures promoted by Miguel Díaz-Canel to expand the space for the private sector, authorize private banking under supervision and facilitate foreign investment, seeking to alleviate its deep energy and production crisis.

However, legal and political security remains strained in other areas. In Venezuela, US President Donald Trump announced that the Southern Command carried out an airstrike in Bolívar state, killing the leader of the Tren de Aragua gang in what was presented as a coordinated action with Caracas. This operation is vital for foreign trade, as it aims to control a key region known for its gold and critical minerals, just as Venezuela is opening up more space to foreign investment in mining.

Meanwhile, Bolivia is under a 90-day state of emergency decreed by President Rodrigo Paz after more than 50 days of trade blockades that have left 14 dead and severe fuel and food supply problems.


Finally, in Colombia, the far-right Abelardo de la Espriella leads by a very narrow margin in the second round of elections against Ivan Cepeda (49,66% versus 48,70%), anticipating a possible radical shift in the economic policies of one of the largest economies in the region.

Source: Cesce