Service industries will benefit most from global trade

HSBC Commercial Banking Study

By 2030, the services sector is expected to account for a sustained 25% of global trade, driven by growth in business-to-business trade and ICT.

---

As the political and economic trends they stop the world trade in commodities and manufactured goods, companies seeking to boost sales through exports should explore opportunities related to services, according to a new study by HSBC Commercial Banking.

 

While the value in American dollars Plans world exports of products has probably contracted by about 3% in 2016, cross border sales of services such as the tourism, banking, construction and software development have increased by 1% in nominal terms, according to the HSBC Global Trade Forecast, which includes the most comprehensive analysis of services trade by country ever undertaken.

 

If governments refrain from introducing new obstacles to trade, the value of the world exports The export of goods is expected to gradually recover to expand by 3% in 2017 and then by 6% annually until 2030. Meanwhile, services will grow at an average annual rate of 7% to contribute USD12,4 trillion to the global economy. international trade flows by 2030, up from an estimated USD4,9 trillion in 2016.

 

However, if new barriers, tariff or non-tariff, are implemented, either due to changes in the trade policy of United States raised by the president-elect Donald Trump or to the so-called «"Hard Brexit" at the United Kingdom, the combined value of trade in goods and services in 2030 could fall by 3% to USD48,8 trillion from a current projection of USD50 trillion.

 

 

 

The New Global Trade Forecast combines data on goods and services for innovative analysis of international trade

 

 

 

Mark Hall, CEO of HSBC in Spain, says:

 

«Spain It has all the necessary factors to play a relevant role in the international trade services and benefit from their growing global importance. With a first-rate tourism sector, companies with extensive experience in the construction sector, and highly skilled professionals in the area of ​​new information technologies, Spanish companies in the services sector must intensify and develop their export potential.

 

In the words of Natalie Blyth, Global Head of Trade and Receivables Finance, HSBC"This comprehensive overview of global trade, encompassing both services and products, clearly demonstrates the value to our economies of..." cross-border trade and the value of diversification for long-term business growth. We can see how technological advances, increased consumer spending, and reduced travel expenses are driving the services sector, even though adverse factors such as volatile commodity prices and subdued investment spending are weighing on the growth of goods trade.

 

In its analysis of bilateral trade between 25 key trading countries, HSBC and his research partner Oxford Economics They concluded that since the global financial crisis, growth in the exports services has outpaced growth in trade in goods. This is partly because spending on services is less affected by fluctuations in economic activity than spending on goods.

 

In particular, business-to-business trade (B2B, Business to business) and information and communications technology (ICT) services have thrived, achieving average annual growth of 9% and 12% respectively between 2000 and 2015 as business models evolved to exploit new technologies such as using the cloud to share data.

 

United States, United Kingdom, China, Germany and France were the main ones world exporters of services in 2015, and will remain so in 2030, but most developed markets will lose share as emerging economies develop the capabilities of their employees and their digital infrastructure. The IndiaFor example, China is already a successful exporter of business process outsourcing (BPO) and financial, medical and engineering support services, and exports in these areas are expected to increase in the coming years.

 

However, while trade in services continues to thrive, it is still very small compared to global trade in goods. The latter will be worth around USD37 trillion in 2030, according to the forecast, equivalent to 75% of total trade.