Economic Forecasts 2H 2026
The German institution has improved its outlook for the Spanish economy, which stands out from the Eurozone thanks to its energy mix and services sector. However, it warns of persistent inflation in Europe due to energy costs stemming from the crisis in the Middle East.
Spain, an economic engine in the face of European stagnation
Deutsche Bank has updated its economic forecasts, projecting that España will lead growth among the major economies of Europa with an increase of GDP of 2,6% in 2026This notable improvement contrasts with the reduction applied to the whole of the Eurozonawhose growth moderates to 0,9% due to the increased cost of energy caused by the conflict in Oriente Medio.
According to the forecast report for the second half of the year, the Spanish economy is showing greater resilience than its main trading partners. The analysis places... España far ahead of Italia (0,8%), Francia (0,8%) and, especially, of Alemania (0,7%), the most affected by its industrial dependence.
Rosa DuceChief Investment Officer of Deutsche Bank en Iberia, explains the differentiating factors: "The reasons why España The fact that it performs better than its European neighbors has to do with an energy mix in which Renewables have an increasing importance and its growth model, more closely linked to the service sector, is less affected by higher energy costs compared to industry. Hence, it is precisely Alemania where growth expectations have been revised downwards the most."
| Macroeconomic Indicator | 2026 Forecast | Region |
|---|---|---|
| GDP growth | 2,6 % | España |
| GDP growth | 0,9 % | Eurozona |
| GDP growth | 0,7 % | Alemania |
| GDP growth | 2,0 % | Estados Unidos |
| Average Inflation | 3,1 % | Eurozona |
| Average Inflation | 3,2 % | Estados Unidos |
Persistent inflation and the response of central banks
The report warns that inflation in Europa It will remain at high levels during the second half of the year. The pass-through of energy costs to final prices could push the CPI of Eurozona to a peak higher than 4,0% during the summerclosing the 2026 fiscal year with an average of 3,1%. Consequently, it is expected that BCE maintain a restrictive bias, with a possible increase in the deposit rate to 2,5% by June 2027.
En Estados UnidosThe situation is different. Although higher energy costs and weaker consumption present headwinds, these are offset by continued fiscal support and the solid investment in Artificial Intelligence (AI)which is consolidating its position as a structural engine of its economy. GDP growth is projected at 2,0% in both 2026 and 2027, with inflation remaining above the target (3,2%). This will lead to Fed to maintain a prudent stance, with a planned rate cut to 3,00%-3,25% by mid-2027.
Investment opportunities in a volatile environment
Despite the geopolitical shock, global equity markets have demonstrated remarkable resilience. The analysis of Deutsche Bank It indicates that the upward trend will continue, supported by the strength of corporate profits, especially in the technology sectors and topics related to AIThis dynamism, centered on the US market, reflects how the structure of stock exchanges is aligning with the new global economy. European stock markets, meanwhile, could recover as uncertainty surrounding the conflict dissipates.
Regarding fixed income, Alejandro VidalHead Investment Manager of Deutsche Bank EspañaHe advises selectivity. "It is likely that the returns of Treasury de EEUU and the Bund "German rates will fall because they have overreacted to possible rate hikes," he says. According to Vidalthe credit Investment-Grade (GI) In dollars and euros, it offers attractive returns, while bonds High-yield (HY), although with a carry While attractive, they present historically low differentials that require caution.
Raw materials: Contained oil and gold as a strategic asset
Regarding raw materials, the entity does not expect oil to return to pre-crisis levels. Prices are expected to remain high. around $80 per barrel within a yearHowever, the market could move from deficit to surplus by the end of the year with the increase in quotas of the OPEP+ and the largest production of Emiratos Árabes UnidosOn the other hand, gold is regaining its role as a strategic asset. Its upside potential could take it to... $5.400 USD/ounce at the end of June 2027, driven by the diversification of central bank reserves, global public debt and demand from private investors in China.
Key points and frequently asked questions about the economic forecasts for 2026
How does this growth divergence with Europe affect Spanish exporting companies?
Although robust domestic growth is positive for national demand, weakness in the EurozonaThe UK, the main destination for Spanish exports, could limit growth potential abroad. For foreign trade managers, diversifying markets outside the EU becomes even more critical to mitigate risks and seize opportunities in more dynamic regions.
Which investment sectors show the greatest potential according to the analysis?
The report highlights equities linked to the technology and Artificial Intelligence, mainly in the market of EEUU...as the one with the greatest resilience and potential. In fixed income, it is recommended to be selective, favoring credit. Investment-GradeFurthermore, gold is consolidating its position as a strategic asset for safe haven and diversification in investment portfolios.
Why is the Spanish economy more resilient to the current energy shock?
The resilience of España It is based on two fundamental pillars. First, its The energy mix has a higher proportion of renewables. to that of other industrialized countries such as AlemaniaThis reduces its dependence on fossil fuels. Secondly, its economic model is more geared towards service sector, which is inherently less energy-intensive than heavy industry.
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