Global Trade Q1 2026
Global merchandise trade grew by 3,2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, exceeding forecasts thanks to a surge in artificial intelligence components. This dynamism offset the initial impact of the conflict in the Middle East, according to data from the WTO and UNCTAD, although further contractions are expected in the region for the second quarter.
The dual effect of AI and geopolitics
Global merchandise trade has shown remarkable resilience in the first quarter of 2026, with year-on-year volume growth of 3,2 % which exceeds market expectations. According to the latest data published jointly by the Organización Mundial del Comercio (OMC) and UNCTAD, the boom in the trade of electronic components linked to the Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been the main driver of this expansion, offsetting the initial negative impact of the conflict in Oriente Medio.
In quarterly terms, trade volume expanded by 1,9%, while its nominal value increased by 2% compared to the previous quarter and by 11% compared to the same period in 2025. This solid performance is especially significant considering that the 2025 comparative base was high, due to the anticipation of imports in América del Norte in anticipation of possible tariff increases.
The strength of AI-related trade, whose dollar value soared more than a 40% year-on-year In the first quarter, it has been key to counteracting the destabilizing effects of the geopolitical crisis. These effects include disruptions in the transport of goods across the Strait of Hormuz and the moderation of GDP growth in net fuel-importing countries due to rising energy prices.
Economists of the OMC They anticipate that the second quarter data will more starkly reflect the contractions in trade flows Oriente Medioalthough they anticipate that the dynamism in Asia y América del Norte It will remain. The final global impact will depend on which factor predominates: the technological boom or geopolitical instability.
Regional analysis: Asia leads while the Middle East suffers the direct impact
The conflict has severely affected trade flows in Oriente MedioThe region's exports and imports fell in volume by 9,7 % or with a 11,9 % year-on-year, respectively, during the first quarter. The estimates of the OMC For the month of March they are even more drastic, with drops in the volume of global crude oil imports from the region of approximately 45%, Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) of 52% and fertilizers of 26%.
In contrast, investments in AI have boosted trade volumes of Asia, whose seasonally adjusted exports and imports grew by 12,9 % or with a 14,6 % year-on-year. This growth has been driven not only by China, but also by Singapur, the República de Corea, Tailandia y Taipéi Chinolargely due to the intraregional circulation of AI-related goods.
For its part, América del Norte It recorded a 7,0% year-on-year increase in its exports, while its imports fell by 10,7% due to the effect of anticipating purchases in 2025. EuropaExports fell 2,6% year-on-year, also affected by the high comparative base of the previous year.
| Region | Export Growth | Import Growth |
|---|---|---|
| Asia | + 12,9 % | + 14,6 % |
| América del Norte | + 7,0 % | -10,7% |
| Europa | -2,6% | + 0,6 % |
| Oriente Medio | -9,7% | -11,9% |
Performance by sector: technology dominates, fuels fall
At the product level, the greatest dynamism in value during the first quarter of 2026 was recorded in the sector of office equipment and telecommunications (+44%)followed by minerals and other metals (+27%) and other machinery (+9%). On the other hand, chemicals (-6%), iron and steel (-5%), and fuels (-3%) registered declines in their trade value.
Among the major trading powers, the growth in the value of exports stood out for the República de Corea (+38,4%) and Hong Kong, China (+ 38,3%). Estados Unidos (+ 15,2%), China (+14,7%) and the Unión Europea (+9,2%) also showed positive performance. Regarding imports, Estados Unidos It was the only one of the five major economies to register a decline (-13,6%), contrasting with the strong increases of Hong Kong, China (+44,8%), the Reino Unido (+ 28,0%), China (+23,0%) and the Unión Europea (+ 11,4%).
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