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Technology and Financial Markets
The Bank for International Settlements warns that the "exuberance" of investment in artificial intelligence could abruptly reverse if the returns do not materialize, generating a systemic impact on the global economy with direct consequences for the Spanish business and export sector.
El Banco de Pagos Internacionales The Bank for International Settlements (BIS), in its latest annual report published today, has issued a stark warning about the current investment cycle in the artificial intelligence sector. The institution, headquartered in BasileaHe points out that the "exuberance" surrounding this technology bears similarities to the dot-com bubble of the late 90s, and warns that it could end in a prolonged phase of correction and divestment if the business models do not generate the promised profits in the short and medium term.
The analysis by the BIS, considered the central bank of central banks, underscores that markets have channeled an unprecedented volume of capital into technology companies specializing in AI, often with valuations that discount extremely optimistic growth scenarios. The main concern is that potential investor disappointment, stemming from weaker-than-expected returns, could trigger a sharp withdrawal of funding. This phenomenon would not only affect the companies directly involved but could also generate a contraction in credit and confidence, potentially destabilizing the global economy.
Impact on the Spanish business fabric
Although the epicenter of this investment activity is concentrated in Estados Unidos under the administration of the president Donald TrumpThe shockwaves of a potential correction would significantly affect the Spanish economy. For Spanish companies, the risk manifests itself on two fronts. On the one hand, the growing ecosystem of domestic technology startups, which relies heavily on international venture capital for its expansion, would face a much more restrictive funding environment, hindering innovation and the creation of skilled jobs.
On the other hand, and more systemically, the country's large corporations that have decisively committed to integrating AI to optimize their operations—from the banking sector to distribution and energy—would see the profitability of their strategic projects threatened. A global economic contraction stemming from this technological crisis would directly impact Spain's external sector, a fundamental pillar of GDP. The reduction in demand in key markets such as the Unión Europea o América Latina would affect the exports of capital goods, industrial products and services.
The crisis in Oriente Medio It has already strained global supply chains, and a new financial shock in the technology sector could exacerbate the uncertainty. Logistics, a vital sector for España as a gateway to EuropaIt would suffer the collateral damage of reduced commercial activity. In this context, European funds Next Generation EUThe funds earmarked for digitalization could act as a buffer for Spanish companies, but their capacity to counteract a massive withdrawal of private capital is limited. The BIS report, therefore, is not only a warning for financial markets, but also a stark reminder of the fragility of a global economic recovery increasingly dependent on the promises of the technological revolution.
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