Image: ©Royal Institute elcano.
Global Market Analysis
The Elcano Royal Institute presents its 2026 Global Presence Index, which confirms a transformation of the world order. The United States and China consolidate their leadership, while Spain remains in 13th position amidst a decline for the main European powers.
El Real Instituto Elcano has published the 2026 edition of its Global Presence Index, an analysis that measures the external projection of 150 countries. The report concludes that globalization is not receding, but rather transforming, with EEUU y China consolidating its power against a Europa in decline, marking the end of the historical cycle that began in the 90s.
Despite geopolitical fragmentation, the paradigm of globalization has evolved. It is no longer based solely on the economic dimension, but is driven by the soft power dimension—migration, culture, and science—and a notable increase in military projection. The report, which commemorates the institute's 25th anniversary, assesses this process from 1990 to 2025.
A snapshot of the major powers: Spain holds firm, Europe retreats
In 2025, Estados Unidos It maintains its lead in the ranking, followed by Chinawhich, although still at a distance, continues to narrow the gap. In fact, Pekín, Washington y Moscú They account for the largest absolute increases in global presence. In this context, España It remains in a solid 13th position, standing out as one of the few European countries that is not losing ground.
The trend in the old continent is, however, worrying. The main European economies, such as Países Bajos y AlemaniaThey experience the steepest declines. Meanwhile, Francia e Italia They are registering more moderate declines. The same dynamic is observed in other advanced economies outside of Europaas the Japón y Australia, which also see their international projection reduced.
The new bipolar order: The US versus China
The analysis of Real Instituto Elcano It identifies two major phases in recent globalization. The first, from 1990 to 2010, was marked by the European boom and the predominance of the economic dimension. The second, over the last 15 years, has been driven by Asian countries and a growing importance of the soft power dimension, a trend slowed by the pandemic.
The divergence between the two giants is remarkable. While China y EEUU While they gain global weight thanks to their greater economic presence, their soft power evolves in the opposite way: China It expands, while EEUU It reduces it. RusiaFor its part, it focuses its advance almost exclusively on the military sphere. According to Manuel Gracia, principal investigator and project coordinator at the Real Instituto Elcano"These results raise some inconsistencies in the discourse MAGA Trumpist, given that more than a loss of relevance of EEUUWe have witnessed the consecration of China».
La Unión Europea The EU has seen its relative weight diminish. After surpassing EEUU with a global presence since 2005, the UE has registered a significant drop since 2020, affected by the Brexitthe pandemic and the reduced contribution of the German and French economies. As a result, brand in 2025 EEUU has surpassed for the first time the level of global presence of UE.
| Country | Position 2025 | Key Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Estados Unidos | 1 º | Increased economic presence, reduction of soft power. |
| China | 2 º | Increased economic and soft presence. |
| España | 13 º | Maintaining presence, stability in Europa. |
| Unión Europea | N/A | Significant drop, surpassed by EEUU. |
| Alemania / Países Bajos | N/A | Sharper declines in Europa. |
"In light of the data, we have moved from the bipolarity of the Guerra Fría (EEUU URSS) to a seemingly multipolar world, now replaced by a relatively new bipolarity (EEUU China)" he explains Blanca González, research assistant of Real Instituto Elcano and co-author of the Index. This new scenario opens up, in the words of Gracia, "a period of uncertainty in which the rules, the protagonists and, ultimately, the future of globalization will be redefined."
Key points and frequently asked questions about the Elcano Global Presence Index 2026
How does the loss of weight of Europe on the global stage affect Spanish companies?
The loss of relative influence of the Unión Europea This could pose a challenge for Spanish companies, which might face a less favorable trading environment and reduced negotiating power for the bloc in international treaties. However, the stability of España The ranking demonstrates a resilience that can be a competitive advantage for seeking alternative markets and diversifying risks outside the continent.
What business opportunities arise from the Asian boom according to the report?
The report confirms that Asia Asia has established itself as the second most important global market. This translates into direct opportunities for Spanish exporting companies in high value-added sectors, technology, consumer goods, and services. The growth of the Asian middle class and the expansion of its soft power (culture, tourism) are opening new business avenues that require internationalization strategies tailored to the region.
Does the new US-China bipolarity imply a greater risk for foreign trade?
Yes, greater polarization between EEUU y China This increases geopolitical uncertainty and the risk of trade tensions, tariffs, and non-tariff barriers. Spanish companies with global supply chains must closely monitor this scenario, assess their exposure to both markets, and consider strategies to nearshoring o friend shoring to mitigate potential disruptions and ensure the continuity of their operations.
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