IEA, IMF, World Bank and WTO warn: the global economy is resilient but the Middle East crisis threatens stability

Response to the Global Crisis

The heads of the IEA, the IMF, the World Bank Group, and the WTO issued a joint statement following their meeting on July 7. They warned that, despite global economic resilience, the effects of the conflict in the Middle East continue to generate significant uncertainty in energy markets and supply chains.

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The leaders of the Agencia Internacional de la Energía (AIE), Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), Grupo Banco Mundial and Organización Mundial del Comercio (OMC) They met on July 7 to coordinate their response to the serious repercussions of the conflict in Oriente Medioissuing a joint statement on resilience and persistent risks to the global economy.

The summit, held within the framework of the high-level coordination group established in April, served to assess developments in energy markets, international trade, and the global economic situation. The leaders of the four institutions concluded that, while the global economy has demonstrated widespread resilience in the face of the shock, the impact has been markedly uneven, and serious concerns remain regarding growth and price stability.

Economic and Commercial Impact Analysis

In their statement, the multilateral organizations emphasize that, although a systemic collapse has been avoided, “some economies have experienced a slowdown in growth and a rise in inflation.” The document notes that the effects of the conflict have spread unevenly, impacting energy supplies, food security, commodity prices, and economic activity in multiple countries and regions.

One of the key points of the analysis is the persistence of uncertainty. Although fuel and fertilizer prices have fallen since the group's last meeting in June, the leaders warn that "uncertainty remains high and the impacts of the war could be long-lasting." This situation is putting both energy markets and the global flow of goods under strain, a critical factor for companies with international trade operations.

Call for Stability and International Cooperation

The joint statement urges "progress towards a resolution of the conflict and the reopening of the Strait of HormuzIn this regard, those responsible for the AIE, FMI, Banco Mundial and OMC They sent a clear message to the international community: "Governments and the international community must remain vigilant and continue working together to defend the principle of freedom of navigation in the Strait and worldwide."

The statement also calls on national authorities to continue implementing policies that support economic recovery, protect jobs and livelihoods, and strengthen energy and food security. Specific measures suggested include: Improvement of port infrastructure and facilitation of tradeas well as an increase in overall resilience to future shocks.

The four organizations pledged to closely monitor the situation and strengthen their response capacity if necessary, adapting their support to member countries as the geopolitical and economic landscape evolves. The ultimate goal, the statement concludes, is to help them "build greater energy, food, trade, and economic resilience."

Summary of the Situation and Recommendations

Impact Area	Actual state	Recommendation of the Organizations
Global Economic Growth	Widespread resilience but with a slowdown and a rebound in inflation in some economies.	Support economic recovery, protect jobs and livelihoods.
Energy Markets	Fuel prices have been falling since June, but with high uncertainty and persistent tensions.	Strengthen energy security and increase resilience to future shocks.
Supply chains	The transit of goods, especially in the Strait of Hormuz, remains under strain.	Defend freedom of navigation and improve port infrastructure and trade facilitation.
Food safety	Fertilizer prices are falling, but food security remains a key concern.	Strengthen food security policies at the national and international levels.

Key points and frequently asked questions about the impact of the crisis in the Middle East

How does this situation affect Spanish exporting companies?

For Spanish companies, the main impact is concentrated in the logistical uncertainty and the potential increase in transport and insurance costsespecially on the routes that cross the Estrecho de OrmuzFurthermore, volatility in energy prices can impact production costs, while the economic slowdown in some destination markets could reduce demand for their products.

What specific measures do the organizations propose to mitigate the risks?

They propose a two-pronged strategy: at the macro level, they call for international cooperation to guarantee freedom of navigation and resolve the conflict. At the national level, they recommend that governments Invest in improving port infrastructure and facilitating trade (customs streamlining, digitization) to make supply chains more robust and efficient in the face of potential disruptions.

Despite resilience, what are the main short-term risks for the European economy?

The main risk to Europa A potential surge in energy inflation if the conflict intensifies would directly impact purchasing power and business costs. Another risk is a contraction in global demand that could hinder European exports, as well as persistent bottlenecks in maritime logistics that could strain the continent's industrial value chains.