The IMF maintains its global growth forecast at 3% for 2026 amid the shadow of the logistics crisis in Hormuz and new tariff threats.

Cesce Country Risk Report July 6-12, 2026

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintains its macroeconomic forecasts for 2026, projecting 3% global GDP growth contingent on the normalization of maritime traffic in the Middle East. In a fragmented international context, the rise of artificial intelligence is driving specific markets, while escalating trade tensions, such as Washington's potential 25% tariffs on Brazil, and severe climate disasters in Asia threaten to destabilize supply chains and the foreign trade global.

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The latest update report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has left global growth estimates virtually unchanged, pointing to an increase in 3% in 2026just one-tenth below what was predicted last April. This forecast assumes as its fundamental premise the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz In mid-July, a vital enclave for international logistics and the transit of hydrocarbons.

"The economy has shown greater dynamism than expected in the first quarter of the year."The institution highlights this resilience, attributing it to the increased role of renewable energy, fiscal support, and strong domestic demand in several countries. However, the organization warns of an inflationary uptick that will climb six-tenths of a percentage point, reaching [a certain figure]. 4,7 %, driven by the rising cost of energy and food.

Regional differences and the impact of the technology sector

At the regional level, uneven performance sets the tone for the global economy. While the eurozone will register modest growth of 0,9 %Weighed down by high hydrocarbon costs, the United States will advance a 2,3 % thanks to the overwhelming international investment linked to Artificial Intelligence (AI). The development of data centers is also benefiting major Asian semiconductor manufacturers, such as South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, and Taiwan, largely offsetting the effects of the conflict in the Middle East.

Meanwhile, China's economy will experience a cooling down until 4,6 % stemming from structural problems and rising oil prices. At the other end of the Asian spectrum, net energy-importing nations like Japan are experiencing downward revisions to their expectations, falling to 0,6 % due to high freight costs caused by the geopolitical crisis.

New trade barriers and geopolitical crises

The risk of tariffs is once again threatening the flow of bilateral trade. The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative has held hearings to assess the imposition of a additional tariff of 25% This measure, implemented under Section 301, targets a wide range of imports from Brazil. It cites disputes over digital trade policies, intellectual property, access to the ethanol market, and illegal deforestation. The Brazilian government rejects these claims, denying any concrete harm to U.S. trade and advocating for diplomatic negotiations.

Meanwhile, instability in the South China Sea continues to dominate the maritime security agenda. Coinciding with the tenth anniversary of the International Court of Justice ruling, a coalition of 14 nations—including the United States, Japan, Australia, the United Kingdom, and the European Union—issued coordinated statements reaffirming the legally binding nature of the judgment and denouncing the harassment of legitimate fishing missions and fishermen by the Chinese coast guard in the region.

Adding to this tense situation is the renewed exchange of attacks between Iran and the United States in the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian authorities have begun attacking commercial vessels sailing through the Omani waterway with their transponders turned off, demanding that shipping companies coordinate their transits with the Revolutionary Guard. In retaliation, Washington has bombed military targets in Iran and revoked Tehran's hydrocarbon export license, a key setback for normalizing the oil market.

Extreme weather and vulnerability in the supply chain

International logistics also faces serious climate threats from a destructive typhoon season in the Western Pacific, which is averaging a certain frequency. 20 % Above the historical average, Typhoon Bavi has forced the precautionary closure of strategic US ports in Guam and paralyzed shipping in Okinawa, Japan. In mainland China, the cyclone forced authorities in Zhejiang to evacuate 1,72 million people, directly impacting the agricultural sector and key logistics networks in the region.

Finally, in the European context, the Russian banking system shows a clear vulnerability due to the prolonged impact of the war and EU sanctions. According to intelligence reports, the 10 % Many of the loans to Russian companies are already in default, and top-tier institutions have reported delinquency rates as high as 15 % in 2025. Meanwhile, the United Kingdom is alerting international investors ahead of the imminent inauguration of the new prime minister, Andy Burnham. The country is grappling with stagnant productivity and runaway public debt, which, according to forecasts, will force spending cuts or tax increases worth 100.000 billion pounds annually.

Source: Cesce