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Global economy
The Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, has stated that global resilience to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has exceeded expectations, thanks to the diversification of supplies and the investment boost from artificial intelligence. However, she warned of fiscal deterioration and stalled disinflation as the main risks on the horizon.
The global economy has demonstrated a greater capacity for resilience than initially projected in the face of the severe energy shock resulting from the crisis in Oriente MedioThis was stated on Tuesday by the managing director of Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), Kristalina Georgieva, in an appearance prior to the meeting of finance ministers of G20 which will be held next week in Asheville (Carolina del Norte). According to GeorgievaThe current situation is defined by a "war rope" between the negative impact of the conflict and the expansive impulse that artificial intelligence is generating.
Energy resilience and the AI boost
Georgieva He explained that global growth "so far has withstood the energy shock caused by the shutdown of the Estrecho de Ormuz"Better than we feared." This resilience is attributed to a combination of factors, including the use of strategic oil and gas reserves by several nations, an increase in supply from countries not located in the region, and a rise in supply from countries outside the region. Golfo Pérsico and an increase in renewable energy production capacity. This diversification has been key for economies highly dependent on energy imports, such as Spain, which in turn has contributed to the stability of the European bloc with its growing renewable capacity. The director of FMI He also mentioned a reduction in demand for fossil fuels and the temporary return to coal in some markets as stabilizing factors.
On the positive side, the surge in investment in artificial intelligence in Estados Unidos This is strengthening corporate profits and consumer demand. An investment cycle whose effects extend beyond US borders, benefiting other countries through the construction of data centers—a clearly expanding sector in España— and through the global hardware supply chain.
The threat of debt and the stagnation of disinflation
Despite the moderate optimism, Georgieva He warned that the risks to the growth outlook, although more balanced than in April, remain tilted to the downside. The main concern centers on the deteriorating fiscal situation in several economies, a factor reflected in rising sovereign bond yields and threatening to stall the global disinflation process. For Spanish companies with an export focus and high exposure to capital markets, this increased cost of sovereign financing represents a latent risk of tightening credit conditions globally.
According to the managing director, growth continues to "withstand powerful headwinds" stemming from "high debt levels, resilient inflation, and trade tensions." This situation raises the possibility that central banks will be forced to maintain tight monetary policies for longer to control inflation, which in turn could dampen economic activity and investment in the medium term.
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