The Spanish economy will continue to grow strongly and create jobs in 2017

Exports are consolidated as a pillar of growth

GDP grew by 3,0% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of the year, marked by more balanced growth.

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The growth of the Spanish economy During the fourth quarter of last year, it stood at 3,0% year-on-year, two-tenths below the rate recorded in the previous quarter.

Overall, the growth rate recorded a year earlier was maintained in 2016, reaching 3,2%.

 

In general, Spanish economy has shown a very solid and progressively more balanced performance throughout the year, returning to position itself among the Europe's fastest growing economies (practically doubling the average growth of the the euro area), as it did in 2015. This has been the case even in the second half of the year, a period in which GDP has been gradually slowing down from the 3,4% year-on-year reached in the second quarter.

 

The dynamism of activity has been directly transferred to the labour market, with the number of employees increasing by 2016% in 2,7.

 

perspectives

 

La Chamber of Commerce of Spain The European Commission believes that the economy will remain strong in 2017, although it will continue to slow down slightly since the second half of 2016. In any case, GDP growth will continue to be higher than that of the Eurozone and the rest of the world. European Union. Compared to the Eurozone, the growth differential could be close to one percentage point.

 

 

According to the forecasts of the Spanish Chamber, GDP will grow by 2,5% in 2017 and more than 300.000 jobs will be created

 

 

La Chamber of Spain estimates GDP growth for the whole of 2017 to be 2,5%, 0,8 percentage points lower than that recorded in 2016. As in the case of this last year, the performance of the economy will go from more to less, with a more attenuated growth in the last part of the year.

 

In this context, the process of job creation and unemployment reduction will also continue, as also highlighted by the unemployment and social security registration figures published today. Chamber of Commerce of Spain In this regard, the country forecasts an average increase of 2,0% in the number of employed people (measured in full-time equivalent jobs), nine-tenths less than in 2016, but which would translate into 338.000 more employed people on average for the whole year. The unemployment rate could reach 18,5% of the working population at the end of the year.

 

The risks that the Spanish economy will face throughout this year have not changed compared to those recorded at the end of 2016. Uncertainties remain about the scope of the first measures implemented by the new US administration, as well as about the negotiations for the exit from the EU UK. Domestically, the approval of the General State Budget is the main procedure to be resolved during the first part of the year, budgetary forecasts that will have to include the necessary adjustments to meet the deficit target set by Brussels.

 

Added to this uncertain environment is the rise in energy prices, which has already begun to be reflected in inflation in the first months of 2017 and which, if it persists over time, could lead to a change in the global monetary policy of central banks.

 

The implementation of the structural reforms that the Spanish economy still needs, with the greatest possible consensus, remains a priority, as well as establishing a path of budgetary consolidation that allows the agreed deficit targets to be met. Given the internal context, this would not be possible without the essential agreement of the different political forces.

 

Growth drivers

 

In line with the gradual slowdown, although maintaining a notable pace of progress, growth has progressively gained balance in its composition. Thus, external demand is consolidated as one of the pillars of the growth of the Spanish economy. The increase in exports of goods and services, of 4,4% in the whole of 2016, compared to the increase in imports (3,3%), has allowed the contribution to growth of external demand to reach 0,5 percentage points in the whole of 2016.

 

On the other hand, the contribution to the growth of domestic demand (2,8 percentage points) has been reduced by 0,5 points, mainly due to the more moderate growth of gross fixed capital formation, compared to that recorded in 2015.