The US and Mexico begin bilateral trade negotiations, excluding Canada and redrawing the map of the USMCA.

Royalty-free stock photograph created by Kyle Glenn and Unsplash.

Shift in North American Trade Policy

The Trump Administration and the Mexican government have agreed to three rounds of negotiations for a new trade agreement, deliberately excluding Canada. This bilateral maneuver threatens the structure of the USMCA and creates significant uncertainty for Spanish companies with interests in the region.

---

The Administration of Estados Unidos, led by the president Donald Trumpand the Government of México They have confirmed the start of three rounds of negotiations for a bilateral trade agreement, leaving aside Canadá, the third partner of Treaty between Mexico, the United States and Canada (T-MEC)The news was first reported by the agency ReutersThis represents a strategic change that could dismantle the North American trade bloc as it has been known since its last renewal.

This move aligns with the current US administration's "America First" protectionist trade policy, which has historically shown a preference for bilateral agreements over multilateral pacts. The exclusion of Ottawa The withdrawal from the negotiating table is a clear pressure tactic that seeks to isolate the Canadian government in order to force concessions in future separate talks, fragmenting the unity of the bloc.

A bilateral shift that fragments the USMCA

The decision to negotiate a pact on the sidelines Canadá dynamites the foundations of T-MECan agreement designed to operate trilaterally. This new approach could lead to a "hub and spoke" model, with Estados Unidos in the center, negotiating different terms with its two neighbors.The stability and predictability offered by the USMCA is now in question.", say international trade analysts consulted by Empresa Exterior that holds the top spot. "A period of regulatory uncertainty is beginning that will directly affect integrated supply chains in the region.«.

The renegotiation will predictably focus on key sectors such as automotive, energy, and agriculture, where the Administración Trump It seeks to impose more favorable conditions for American production and employment. The exclusion of Canadá It could be linked to unresolved disputes on issues such as dairy products, timber, or the implementation of taxes on digital services.

Table 1: Positioning of the actors in the renegotiation of North American trade.

Actor	Current Position	Strategic objective
Estados Unidos	Promotes bilateral negotiations with México.	To secure a more favorable agreement, to isolate Canadá and strengthen the national industry.
México	It accepts the bilateral framework to ensure access to its main market.	Protecting key exports and maintaining certainty for foreign investment.
Canadá	Excluded from initial discussions.	Defend the trilateral nature of the USMCA and avoid concessions under pressure.

Implications for Spanish companies in North America

For Spanish businesses, this situation creates a complex landscape. Companies with a strong presence in México, especially in the sector of automotive, components and manufacturing, who use the country as an export platform to Estados UnidosThey face significant regulatory risk. The alteration of the rules of origin or the introduction of new tariffs could disrupt their business models.

Logistics experts consulted by Empresa Exterior They warn that «Any changes to customs regulations between the three countries will force companies to conduct a thorough review of their supply chains to assess costs and risks."The main areas of impact for Spanish subsidiaries in the region include:

• Tariff uncertainty: Possibility of new tariffs for products that do not comply with future and stricter rules of origin.
• Logistical and customs complexity: Managing three different regulatory frameworks (one trilateral and potentially two bilateral) will increase administrative and operational costs.
• Investment risk: The instability of the trade framework may hinder future investment decisions (FDI) by Spanish companies in México y Canadá.
• Competitiveness: A bilateral US-Mexico agreement could benefit local or US competitors at the expense of European companies established in the region.

Key points and frequently asked questions about the US-Mexico negotiations

How does this negotiation affect Spanish companies that export to North America?

Spanish companies, especially those with production in México to sell in EE.UU.They must prepare for a possible tightening of rules of origin and the introduction of new tariffs. It is crucial to audit the supply chain to ensure compliance with the regulations resulting from these negotiations and to assess the impact on logistics and production costs.

Does this mean the end of the USMCA as we know it?

Not necessarily its end, but certainly a profound transformation. This movement threatens to turn an integrated trilateral agreement into a system where Estados Unidos It acts as a central axis with separate and potentially different agreements with México y CanadáThis erodes the predictability and legal certainty that the treaty offered.

Which Spanish sectors are most exposed to this change?

The automotive and components sector is the most vulnerable, given its deep integration into the value chains of NorteaméricaAdvanced manufacturing companies, the aerospace sector, and, in general, any Spanish company that uses México as an export platform to the US market under the rules of T-MEC.