The World Bank and the OECD warn of a sharp slowdown in the global economy in 2026, hampered by energy costs and geopolitical instability.

Country Risk Analysis, June 8-14

La World economy It is showing signs of its slowest pace of expansion since the health crisis, heavily influenced by the sustained rise in crude oil prices and persistent inflationary pressures. This complex scenario for the foreign trade and international investmentAdded to this is the slowdown facing Latin America, a deep institutional fracture after the close elections in Peru, and the serious resurgence of maritime tensions between China and Taiwan, factors that are triggering uncertainty in international markets.

---

Energy slows global expansion

El World Bank It estimates that the GDP of the world economy will increase by a modest 2,5% in 2026, which is one tenth less than the estimates made at the beginning of the year.. This is therefore the slowest growth rate since the Covid-19 pandemic.. The institution forecasts an increase in GDP for the emerging economies of 3,6%, which represents about one percentage point less than in 2025. Meanwhile, growth in the most developed countries will slow by three tenths of a percent, settling at 1,5%..

These forecasts assume a decrease in distortions in the energy sector from the second half of July. In this context, it is estimated that the average price of oil in 2026 will be $94 per barrel. This represents a year-on-year increase of over 35%, which would raise the world inflation up to 4%. However, the entity warns of the possibility that more stressed financial scenarios may materialize.. If disruptions in oil supply continue beyond July, the price of crude oil in 2026 would be above $115 a barrel, contracting global economic growth to 2,1%.. A third, even more pessimistic scenario envisions that the prolongation of this energy crisis will trigger severe disturbances in the financial markets.. In this scenario, global GDP growth would fall to an alarming 1,3%..

Latin America: slower growth and reduced fiscal space

The Latin American region is not immune to turbulence either. According to the Economic Outlook published in June by the OECDLatin America faces a new economic slowdown, where the growth of its seven main economies would fall from 2,2% in 2025 to 1,7% in 2026, before rebounding to 2,2% in 2027.. The region enters this episode with better macroeconomic defenses than in previous crises, thanks to central banks enjoying greater credibility, more flexible monetary regimes, and financial systems they are more solid.

However, the conflict in the Middle East has substantially worsened the external scenario by making energy, food, and fertilizers more expensive.. This situation puts upward pressure on inflation, weakens the foreign investment and reduces the room for maneuver to lower interest rates. In turn, the fiscal capacity to respond and compensate for this slowdown is now more limited.. The OECD warns that applying generalized subsidies can be expensive and inefficient, as well as difficult to withdraw; therefore, it recommends that economic aid be strictly temporary and directed to the most vulnerable households and sectors.. In the medium term, to revitalize the economy, the international organization recommends an agenda focused on improving the business environment, significantly reducing administrative barriers, facilitating trade, strengthening regional integration, and attracting investment.. It also underlines the vital need to promote stable regulatory frameworks, better infrastructure, and greater energy security to harness the region's enormous potential in renewable energy and critical minerals.

Uncertainty and polarization in Peru

In the political sphere, the second round of the Peruvian presidential elections, held on June 7, resulted in a virtual tie.. According to the latest information, candidate Keiko Fujimori has achieved a minimal margin, gathering 50,051% of the votes compared to 49,949% for Roberto Sánchez, which represents a difference of just 4.200 votes.. If this Pyrrhic advantage is ultimately confirmed, Fujimori would reach the presidency on his fourth attempt..

However, the result will not be official until the verification of the records is fully completed.. Faced with this scenario, Sánchez has filed appeals for annulment and has made a public call to his supporters to demonstrate, operating under the claim that "Keiko won't win in Peru"alluding to the lead he maintains in the national polls. Indeed, overseas voting played a decisive role in the final result.. The Fuerza Popular candidate managed to offset Sánchez's wide lead within the country—especially in rural and inland areas—thanks to the overwhelming support of Peruvians living abroad, particularly in the United States.. This result confirms the depth of the country's political divide, also highlighting the enormous gap between those who vote from within Peru and those who vote from the diaspora.. Whatever the final outcome, Peru's political fragility remains: the country is still deeply polarized, its institutions have suffered years of erosion, and the extremely narrow electoral margin leaves great uncertainty about whether the new government will be able to build a sufficient base of legitimacy to guarantee governability..

Asia-Pacific: Maximum tension in the Taiwan Strait

In the Asian sphere, geopolitical risk escalates dramatically. Taiwan's Coast Guard was forced to deploy its ships and remain on high alert after an incursion by the Chinese Coast Guard into its eastern waters.. On June 10, the Asian giant justified the dispatch of its ships by citing a "Special operation to enforce maritime traffic law"theoretically oriented towards inspecting commercial ships, checking submarine cables and carrying out various hydrographic studies.

On the international stage, the move has been interpreted as a direct response to the recent maritime boundary and security agreements reached between Japan and the Philippines.. During the course of this patrol, the Chinese vessels harassed merchant ships, demanding detailed information about their routes and logistical destinations—an act that Taipei authorities did not hesitate to label as highly provocative and illegal.. In response, Taiwan's Coast Guard acted by actively intercepting and expelling Beijing's vessels, with the aim of defending the island's sovereignty and ensuring the overall safety of international navigation.. Almost simultaneously, Taiwan had to expel two other Chinese government ships that violated the restricted waters of Itu Aba Island, located in the strategic South China Sea, demonstrating what appears to be coordinated pressure from China on multiple fronts..

Source: Cesce