Country risk analysis, June 1-7, 2026
The board of the international economy It is going through a phase of extreme volatility at the start of June 2026. The entrenchment of the conflict in the Middle East has not only begun to take its toll on the vital industry of international tourismbut has caused a drastic contraction in the Iraqi economy due to the blockage of its shipping routes foreign trade.
In parallel, the map of the international investments And global logistics faces new challenges: from tariff and regulatory rearmament in Africa's mining sector, to the reorganization of strategic alliances in the Asia-Pacific region and growing political uncertainty in the Americas that threatens to disrupt monetary and economic policies foreign investment.
One hundred days after the outbreak of the conflict between the United States and Iran, the consequences for the global macroeconomics are becoming increasingly evident. The recent escalation has led Israel to launch missiles at the Persian cities of Isfahan and Tabriz, hitting a major petrochemical complex, in response to attacks from Tehran.. Meanwhile, the Houthi militia in Yemen has resumed its offensives and is threatening to harass ships in the Red Sea, severely compromising the international logistics in the Bab al-Mandeb strait. US President Donald Trump has stated that he is intervening to stop the clashes and safeguard the negotiations..
The one suffering the greatest regional economic impact is Iraq. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz prevents it from redirecting its oil exports To the exterior. Iraqi crude production has plummeted to 1,4 million barrels per day, barely a third of its usual volume.. Faced with this paralysis, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a economic contraction of almost 7% for the country in this fiscal year, along with a fiscal deficit that will approach 8% of GDP.
This war-like climate also impacts the expectations of the quintessential borderless industry. While international tourism While it experienced year-on-year growth of 2% in the first quarter of 2026 (reaching 307 million travelers), Middle Eastern destinations plummeted by 14%.. Furthermore, the World Tourism Organization (UN Tourism) has lowered its global growth forecasts for the end of the year by up to two percentage points due to rising fuel prices..
Supply chains and protectionism in strategic resources
Geopolitical tension continues to disrupt flows of raw materials. In Russia, Moscow has been forced to ban aviation fuel exports until November after a record level of Ukrainian attacks on its refineries in May, threatening its domestic market supply and reducing its crude oil production by 13% year-on-year..
On the front of the international investmentsMozambique has taken a firm stance by legally requiring a 15% state stake in all companies in the mining sector.. Furthermore, the world's third-largest producer of graphite—a key mineral for electric vehicle batteries—has banned the export of unprocessed mineral products.. This bold measure seeks attract productive investment local and retain the added value of its resources.
For its part, the United States has intensified trade pressure on Cuba by sanctioning President Miguel Díaz-Canel and freezing assets of foreign companies with government ties.. This blockade has already led to a retreat in the operations of hotel chains such as Meliá and Iberostar, and even the Canadian mining company Sherritt is considering selling its business on the island to US interests..
Trade reconfiguration in Asia-Pacific
In terms of alliances foreign tradeThe Philippines and Vietnam have just signed a "Strengthened Strategic Partnership" that includes joint naval operations to counter Chinese hegemony in the South China Sea and an ambitious goal of $10.000 billion in bilateral tradefocused on Artificial Intelligence and the semiconductors.
Meanwhile, Bangladesh has chosen to move closer to Beijing's orbit to secure its position. international financing of its river megaprojects, valued at around $3.800 billion, marking a clear strategic shift towards India after the fall of Sheikh Hasina's government. Similarly, Chinese President Xi Jinping has landed in Pyongyang in an attempt to refocus on the economic sphere and prevent North Korea from definitively shifting towards Russian influence in the context of the war in Ukraine..
Political uncertainty and central banks under pressure
The weather of international Business America is experiencing great instability. In Bolivia, severe blockades stemming from the economic crisis and high inflation have paralyzed the country and forced President Rodrigo Paz to approve a legal basis for a potential state of emergency.. Further north, in Peru, the electoral margin is extremely tight between Keiko Fujimori (favorable to the private investment) and Roberto Sánchez (who proposes higher taxes on mining and active state intervention in the economy), threatening to paralyze decisions of foreign investment Direct until July.
Finally, global financial markets are absorbing the enormous pressure President Donald Trump is putting on Kevin Warsch, the new leader of the US Federal Reserve.. On the eve of the June monetary policy meeting, and despite a 3,8% inflationary spike exacerbated by the logistical crisis in Hormuz, Trump has declared that "There's no reason to raise them."demanding a drastic cut in interest rates to 1% or less, challenging the central bank's orthodoxy to stimulate the economic growth at the cost of putting pressure on the price of the foreign exchange.
Source: Cesce
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