The impact of port traffic jams on inflation: a 100-hour delay raises prices by 0,5%

 

A recent analysis prepared by economists from Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI) in February 2026 demonstrates that shipping delays significantly increase inflation in Estados Unidos due to the high dependence of foreign trade by sea.

 

The report, titled «From Ports to Prices: The Inflationary Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions», has been developed by researchers Yang Jiao, Ting Lan, Yang Liu y Xinrui ZhouThe authors conclude that an increase of 100 hours in port waiting times translates into a spike in inflation of approximately 0,5 percentage points at its peak, which usually occurs five months after the delay occurs.

 

Dynamics of delays and their impact on prices

 

The research uses real-time data from Sistema de Identificación Automática (AIS) to track the movement of cargo ships. Experts from FMI They document that maritime transport represents about 80% of global trade, making ports critical bottlenecks for domestic price stability.

 

During the crisis analyzed, a notable geographical heterogeneity was observed. While the ports of the Costa Oesteand Puerto de Los ÁngelesWhile some regions experienced the most severe congestion peaks—going from an average stay of 400 hours to peaks of 700 hours in early 2022—other regions, such as the northeast, showed much more moderate levels of congestion.

 

Logistics/Economic Indicator	Documented Impact or Value
Effect of a 100-hour delay	+0,5 percentage points in inflation (5-month peak)
Maximum delay in the Puerto de Los Ángeles	Approximately 700 hours (early 2022)
Percentage of global trade by sea	80% approximately
Consumer goods inflation (Peak 2022)	Approximately 15% (excluding automotive)
Insurance and freight costs (Pre-pandemic)	4% of the import value

 

Differences by product categories

 

The study emphasizes that not all sectors are affected equally, as dependence on specific ports varies depending on the product. For example, 54% of footwear and headwear imports from Estados Unidos enter through the Puerto de Los Ángeleswhile textile products have a more dispersed distribution among Newark, Savannah y Long Beach.

 

This port specialization means that localized disruptions in one region can trigger price spikes in specific categories of domestic consumption. Researchers controlled for variables such as tax incentives and tariffs on China to isolate the pure effect of logistics, confirming that port efficiency is a key determinant of macroeconomic stability.

 

Key points and frequently asked questions about the impact of ports on prices

How long does it take for a port delay to be reflected in stores?

According to FMIthe maximum effect on consumer prices occurs five months later of the delay occurring at the port, although the impact begins to be felt gradually from the first month.

Which ports were most affected by the congestion?

The ports of the Costa Oeste de Estados Unidos They experienced the longest delays. Puerto de Los Ángeles It led the increases in waiting times, followed by other strategic nodes such as Savannah y Houston.

Is freight cost the main culprit behind inflation?

Although transport and insurance costs (CIF-FOB) rose slightly from 4% to 5% during the crisis, the study suggests that lag time And disruptions in the supply chain have a much more decisive impact on the escalation of final prices than simply increasing shipping rates.