El Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMIThe IMF has lowered its global growth forecast for 2026 to 3,1% due to the war in IránThe adjustment is a response to rising energy costs and instability in the Estrecho de Ormuz, especially affecting Europa, China and crude oil importing countries.
Global risk scenarios in the face of the conflict in the Middle East
The update of WEO (World Economic Outlook) published by the FMI It reflects a panorama of widespread slowdownThe baseline scenario, which assumes a resolution to the conflict in the coming weeks, projects global GDP growth of 3,1%, two-tenths of a percentage point lower than previously forecast. However, the organization warns of "extremely high uncertainty" and outlines more severe alternative scenarios.
on a stage "adverse"With a more prolonged war, oil would exceed $100/b and global growth would fall to 2,5%. In this scenario "severe"Crude oil would reach $125/b in 2027, placing the global economy on the brink of recession with growth of just 2% and inflation of 6%.
| Region / Country | GDP Forecast 2026 | Key Factor |
|---|---|---|
| Mundo | 3,1 % | War in Irán |
| Estados Unidos | 2,3 % | Energy independence and AI |
| Eurozona | 1,1 % | Cost of gas and oil |
| China | 4,4 % | Weakness in domestic consumption |
| India | 6,5 % | Regional resilience engine |
| Argentina | 3,5 % | Fiscal adjustment and reforms |
Latin America: Progress in Argentina and relief in Venezuela
En Argentina, FMI It has technically completed the second review of its program, which will enable a disbursement of 1.000 millionThe organization endorses the economic course based on fiscal balance, restrictive monetary policy, and the labor reform agenda. However, challenges remain in accumulating reserves, and monthly inflation reached 3,4% in March.
In turn, the Tesoro de Estados Unidos has relaxed sanctions on the financial system of Venezuela, allowing operations with the Banco CentralThis relief aims to facilitate the inflow of oil revenues and has coincided with the resumption of technical dialogue with the FMI and the Banco Mundial. Companies like Repsol They have already announced agreements to increase their production under this new framework.
Dynamics in Asia and the Pacific
Despite that China It surprised with 5,0% growth in the first quarter of 2026 thanks to its exports, according to the analysis of Cesce underlines the caution of FMIwhich maintains an annual forecast of 4,4% due to slowing consumption. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions are rising in the Sudeste Asiático: Filipinas has denounced China for "environmental sabotage" through the use of cyanide in disputed waters.
En Indonesia, Banco Central The government has intervened drastically to defend the rupee, which has surpassed 17.000 units per dollar. Authorities have reduced limits on foreign currency purchases and used international reserves to stabilize the currency against rising oil prices.
Eastern Europe and the Berlin-kyiv Strategic Alliance
The defense sector sets the European agenda. Alemania y Ucrania have signed a Strategic Alliance which includes the joint production of drones and the transfer of operational data in real time. Berlín, established as the largest European provider of military aid, will finance missile supplies Patriot and systems IRIS-T worth more than 3.300 billion euros.
En BulgariaThe eighth election in five years has given the victory to Rumen RadevThe new leadership adopts a more critical stance towards Bruselas in terms of military support to Rusia and questions the impact of the euro on the purchasing power of the population.
Instability in Africa and the Middle East
The region MENA The Middle East and North Africa are suffering a severe setback, with projected growth of just 1,1%. Countries such as Irak, Catar e Irán They face GDP contractions exceeding 6% due to the lockdown of Estrecho de Ormuz. In África Subsahariana, FMI It has also cut its forecasts to 4,3% due to the increased cost of fertilizers and hydrocarbons.
En SudánThe civil conflict enters its fourth year, consolidating an unprecedented humanitarian crisis, while in Benín, the ruling party of Romuald Wadagni He won with 94% of the votes in a process marked by the absence of the opposition.
United States: Inflation and lack of fiscal space
The economy of Estados Unidos It faces internal tensions with inflation that rebounded to 3,3% in March, driven by the energy sector. FMI It also warns about the level of public debt, which stands at 123,9% of GDP, limiting the capacity of Gobierno to absorb new economic shocks without compromising long-term stability.
Source: Cesce
Key points and frequently asked questions about Country Risk
How does the war in Iran affect the IMF's forecasts?
El FMI It has lowered its global growth forecast to 3,1% in its baseline scenario. If the conflict intensifies (severe scenario), growth could fall to 2%—on the brink of a global recession—with oil prices reaching $125/bn and inflation of 6%, which would necessitate a tightening of monetary policy.
What is the financial situation in Venezuela after the recent changes?
El Tesoro de EE.UU. has issued licenses that allow operations with the Banco Central de Venezuelafacilitating dollar transactions and oil exports. Furthermore, FMI and the Banco Mundial They have resumed technical dialogue after years of isolation, opening the door to future resources worth $5.000 billion.
What does the new defensive alliance between Germany and Ukraine entail?
This is a strategic agreement that includes ten operational documents for the joint production of drones in Alemania and the supply of advanced air defense systems (Patriot e IRIS-T). Berlín will allocate an additional 11.500 billion euros to implement these bilateral commitments.
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