Germany's export powerhouse has shown signs of slowing down in July, with its foreign sales down 0,6% compared to the previous month. The Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) has confirmed that the main reason for this adjustment lies in the severe 7,9% drop in exports to the United States, a key market for German industry.
This decline in the North American market is a direct consequence of the imposition of 15% tariffs by Washington on products of European originThis measure caused Germany's total sales to countries outside the European Union to contract by 4,5% during the month under review. Although the United States remains Germany's largest individual customer, the value of exports to this destination, estimated at €11.100 billion, was significantly lower than usual.
Faced with this adverse situation in transatlantic trade, the European Union's internal market has acted as a crucial counterweight. German exports to its EU partners registered a significant increase of 2,5%., demonstrating the resilience and strategic importance of the single market. Thanks to this strong performance, the German trade surplus reached 14.700 millones de euros in July, a figure slightly lower than that of June but reflecting the strength of its foreign sector.
In terms of imports, these also showed a slight monthly contraction of 0,1%, although year-on-year they showed growth of 4,3%.
The impact on the Spanish value chain
Germany's economic stagnation, which is the second largest destination for Spanish exports, has a direct impact on Spain's business community. Although the overall effect is considered moderate, certain sectors are already feeling the consequences. Companies in the following sectors industrial, automotive, chemical and agri-food They are the most exposed to lower German demand, which could translate into a slowdown in orders and greater uncertainty in their investment plans.
However, the Spanish economy has significant strengths that limit contagion. Spain maintains a growth rate higher than that of Germany and the eurozone average., supported by solid domestic demand and lower inflation. This resilience, coupled with a growing market diversification The expansion of exports to destinations such as France, Italy, the United States, and Latin America has offset some of the weakness of our German partner. Furthermore, despite the current situation, German companies with a presence in Spain are maintaining their investment and hiring plans, which continues to stimulate their local suppliers.
The German statistical office itself has stressed that “The decline in German exports in July is mainly due to lower US demand as a result of new tariffs.".
This situation has raised concerns among experts. Analysts consulted by Reuters have issued a clear warning: “The export-oriented German economy could be severely affected if these taxes are maintained over time.".
Although the current trade balance is the lowest recorded since October 2024, it remains at historically robust levels. Looking ahead, economic projections point to a Stabilization of the trade surplus in a range of between 8.000 and 14.000 billion euros for the coming years, a scenario that, however, is conditional on there being no escalation in the current tariff war.
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