WTO Barometer
Global trade in goods is maintaining a positive trajectory during the first half of 2026, defying tensions stemming from the conflict in the Middle East and high energy costs. Market resilience is primarily supported by the extraordinary demand for electronic components driven by new technological investments.
The ecosystem of international trade It demonstrates a remarkable capacity for adaptation in the face of current macroeconomic adversities. According to the latest update of Goods Trade Barometer drawn up by the World Trade Organization (WTO)The global volume of transactions remains above its historical trend, despite persistent headwinds generated by instability in the Middle East.
This leading indicator, designed to anticipate the trajectory of the exports and imports Globally, it is currently located at 101,7 pointsAlthough this figure represents a slight decrease compared to the 102,3 points recorded last January—suggesting a slight slowdown in the growth rate—, remaining above the 100-point mark confirms that Trade volume continues to exceed the usual average.
In fact, real quarterly trade volumes have managed to stay on the rise since the beginning of 2025. This phenomenon is explained by a paradigm shift in industrial consumption. As the WTO highlights in its analysis, "The negative impact of the conflict in the Middle East may have been partially offset by the growing demand for electronic components related to investment in artificial intelligence (AI)".
Contrast between sectors: technology leads over raw materials
The sectoral breakdown of the Barometer reveals a two-speed global economy. The main driver of this period is... index of electronic components, which skyrockets to the 105,5 points, firmly positioning itself above the trend and reflecting the boom in the technology sector. In parallel, the export orders —a highly predictive sub-index— show positive signs by registering 100,5 points.
Conversely, other productive sectors are showing signs of fatigue. This is the case with... agricultural raw materials and automotive products, which fall slightly below the trend with 98,9 and 99.8 points, respectively.
In the field of logistics and international transportationThe indicators continue to expand, although at a more moderate pace than in previous quarters. air freight transport It scores 102,2 points, while the container shipping It stands at 102,4 points, demonstrating that global supply chains remain operational and are absorbing demand.
Market forecasts and trends
It is worth remembering that the recent evolution of trade has been marked by the strategic movements of 2025. During the first quarter of last year, the volume of world trade experienced a strong year-on-year rebound because importers They accelerated their purchases to anticipate tariff increasesAlthough growth subsequently moderated, the year ended with figures higher than expected, sustained by demand for AI-enabling goods.
Looking ahead to the end of the current fiscal year, the outlook presented in the report World Trade Outlook and Statistics The WTO points to a growth of 1,9% by 2026 in a baseline scenario. However, this percentage could fall to 1,4% in a scenario of high energy prices stemming from the crisis in the Middle East. As a positive counterpoint, the international organization estimates that sustained investment in Artificial intelligence could add an additional 0,5 percentage points to the final growth rate. The next official update of these economic forecasts will be published in October 2026.
Any questions about this news?
Talk to Coexia, the AI of the foreign trade
International business service providers
Gedeth Network
Gedeth Network is a consultancy specializing in international growth that supports companies…read more...
Demos Global Group
Demos Global Group is a consultancy with over 27 years of experience…read more...
UR Global
With over 25 years of experience, the consulting firm UR Global specializes in…read more...