Trump's visit to China, under the shadow of the war in Iran, foreshadows a highly tense scenario for international trade.

Geopolitics and Global Trade

US President Donald Trump's upcoming diplomatic visit to China comes amid heightened tensions over the conflict in Iran. The meeting, expected to be less cordial than during his first term, is generating uncertainty in global supply chains and trade diplomacy.

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The imminent diplomatic visit of the president of EEUU, Donald Trump, China The meeting with his counterpart takes place within a highly complex geopolitical context, marked by armed conflict in IránTrade diplomacy experts consulted by Empresa Exterior anticipate that this meeting will be significantly more tense and "cold" than those held during his first term, with direct repercussions for global trade and, specifically, for the interests of Spanish companies.

The administration Trump en Washington It refocuses on the bilateral relationship with PekínBut the scenario has changed drastically. Unlike the previous one commercial war Focused on tariffs and intellectual property, the current tension is exacerbated by an armed conflict in a region strategic to global trade. The position of China about Irán and its implications for the stability of the Middle East adds a layer of diplomatic pressure that threatens to destabilize the already fragile global supply chains.

Implications for Spanish companies: from logistics to strategy

For Spanish businesses, this summit is not a distant event, but a critical factor that can directly impact their operations and profitability. geopolitical uncertainty derivative of an axis Washington Pekín Irán This generates several risk fronts:

• Supply Chain Risks: An escalation of tensions could result in new non-tariff barriers, more rigorous inspections, or, in the worst-case scenario, disruptions to the flow of goods to and from China, a key supplier for the Spanish industry.
• Volatility in Energy and Logistics Costs: The conflict in Irán It already exerts strong pressure on shipping routes, especially in the Strait of HormuzAny gesture of hostility between the superpowers could cause freight and insurance prices to skyrocket, directly impacting the margins of importers and exporters.
• Need for Diversification: This scenario reinforces the strategic urgency for Spanish companies to accelerate the market diversification and suppliers, reducing dependence on a single actor and building more resilient value chains.

The following comparative table outlines the key differences between the context of trade diplomacy during the first term of Trump and the current situation:

Key Factor	Visit First Term (2017-2021)	Current Visit (2026)
Geopolitical Context	Primarily focused on the "trade war" and the balance of payments deficit.	Exacerbated by an active military conflict in Irán with global implications.
Relationship with China	Tense but with open channels of negotiation on tariffs.	"Colder" and with strategic distrust of international alliances.
Commercial Priority	Reduction of the trade deficit EEUU.	Security of supply chains and diplomatic pressures linked to the conflict.
Expected Impact on España	Tariff uncertainty and its impact on specific sectors.	Systemic risk in logistics, energy costs and the need for strategic redesign of internationalization.

Key points and frequently asked questions about the Trump-Xi meeting and its effects

How does the conflict in Iran directly affect the logistics of Spanish companies?

The conflict in Irán directly impacts the cost and safety of maritime transport the Estrecho de OrmuzThe Strait of Gibraltar, one of the most important arteries of global oil and goods trade, is a major transportation route. Spanish companies should anticipate increased transport insurance premiums, potential war risk surcharges (WRS) on freight rates, and delays due to route diversions, all of which increase costs and slow down the entire logistics chain.

Which Spanish sectors are most vulnerable to an escalation of trade tensions between the US and China?

The most exposed sectors are those with a high dependence on components manufactured in Chinaand technology, automotive and consumer goodsLikewise, companies exporting high value-added products to China They could be affected by possible trade retaliation or a contraction in domestic demand in the Asian giant due to economic instability.

Given this scenario, what internationalization strategy should Spanish managers consider?

The main recommendation from the analysts consulted by Empresa Exterior is to invest in... resilience and diversificationThis implies not only seeking alternative markets in regions such as América Latina or Sudeste Asiáticobut also diversify the supplier base (nearshoring or friend-shoring) to mitigate the risks of a supply chain disruption with China.