The Federal Reserve lowered its growth outlook for the US economy to 1,4% in 2025, substantially lower than last year's 2,8%. It also predicts unemployment will rise from the current 4,2% to 4,5% and inflation will increase from 2,1% in April to 3%.
The Federal Reserve's dot plot suggests two quarter-point rate cuts this year. But Fed members are increasingly divided, with more and more ruling out any reduction in borrowing costs for the remainder of 2025. Recent inflation data has been subdued, but many economists expect price pressures to increase as companies pass on the costs of tariffs. Nevertheless, the degree of uncertainty surrounding tariffs is very high. July 9th is the deadline for tariff negotiations between the United States and the rest of the world; only then will we have a clearer picture of the potential price trajectory.
Source: CESCE
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