The slowdown in global merchandise trade is consolidating in the second half of the year, according to the WTO Barometer.

Newsroom Friday, November 28, 2025 Reading time:

Global trade in goods is showing signs of moderation after peaking in the first half of 2025. The latest Goods Trade Barometer from the World Trade Organization (WTO) indicates a decline in its overall index to 101.8 points in September, suggesting that the pace of trade expansion, while still above trend, is losing momentum.

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The overall Barometer index, which serves as a composite and predictive indicator of the trajectory of merchandise trade, was located in $101.8$ In September, a slight drop compared to the $102.2$ recorded in June. This decline suggests that the strong year-on-year growth of $4.9%$ The experience in the first half of 2025 may not be replicated in the final stretch of the year.

This initial boom was driven, in part, by an anticipation of imports in response to the forecast of tariff increases and due to the high demand for products related to the Artificial Intelligence (AI)However, the Barometer—which usually anticipates commercial events by two or three months—although still It is based on $100$ , points to a slower expansion in the fourth quarter.

The WTO report highlights that most of the indicators comprising the Barometer remain above the threshold of $100$ However, a deceleration in the indices of air freight ( $102.7$ ) and container shipping ( $101.7$ ), which reflects a cooling in the global logistics of goods. Conversely, the sectors of automotive products ( $103.0$ ) and Electronic components ( $102.0$ They managed to maintain a steady pace during the same period.

On the downside, the index of agricultural raw materials ( $98.0$ ) is the only one that remains in the zone of contraction and has been since the beginning of 2025, suggesting persistent challenges in this segment of trade.

Despite this moderation, the index of new export orders, a key forward-looking indicator, exceeded the $100$ points to position oneself in $102.3$ in the second quarter, after a period of volatility. This indicates that the boost in global exports could hold on, although at a more leisurely pace.

The WTO's most recent projections, issued in October, anticipate that the growth in trade volume for the entire year 2025 it will be around $2.4%$ However, the organization clarifies that there is a considerable upside potential if the robust demand for products linked to the IA It remains unchanged. The next update of the WTO forecasts is expected in April 2026.