Deutsche Bank ranks Spain as the leader in GDP growth in the Eurozone until 2026

 

The economic growth of Spain Spain will continue to outperform its European peers and major global economies through 2026, according to projections presented by Deutsche Bank. The forecasts place Spain's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at a del% increase 2,9 by the end of 2025, a figure well above the 1,4% projected for the Eurozone as a whole and the 1,9% for the United States. For 2026, the entity anticipates continued growth of 2,2%, compared to 1,1% in the Eurozone.

 

Growth Drivers and Risk Factors in Spain

 

According to Rosa Duce, Chief Investment Officer of Deutsche Bank in Spain, the main drivers of Spanish dynamism have changed: “The consumption and investment They have become the main drivers of this growth in Spain, and will continue to be so in 2026.”

 

However, the expert warned about factors that could moderate the pace, leading to a stabilization of growth, albeit at still high levels. These factors include... exhaustion of the tourism sector, a slower pace of goods exports—due to tariffs—and an increase in imports, which would result in a negative contribution of the external sector next year.

 

Duce also highlighted the persistence of structural problems in the country, such as the “low productivity"Worker qualifications not aligned with employment needs and insufficient correction of the structural deficit."

 

Monetary Policy and Global Outlook

 

On the international stage, the global economy will remain solid academic approach, despite persistent risks such as geopolitical conflicts, rising inflation, sovereign debt and trade disputes.

 

En EuropeFiscal and monetary measures are expected to support growth. Deutsche Bank forecasts that European Central Bank (ECB) keep interest rates at the 2% until the end of 2026It is emphasized that Germany, It will benefit from the large planned investments in infrastructure and defense, which will boost the manufacturing sector and, by extension, help other European countries.

 

Respecto a United StatesThe entity forecasts a gradual recovery driven by strong consumer sentiment, solid corporate balance sheets, and continued investment growth in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and public spending. In this context, the Federal Reserve (Fed) would do three cuts of 25 basis points each by the end of 2026, placing the official interest rate in a range of 3% to 3,25%.

 

In Asia, the economy China It could lose momentum in 2026, hampered by the current housing crisis that is slowing household consumption, despite the trade truce with the US and its AI industry. On the other hand, Japan It plans to increase spending, tax breaks, and investment to stimulate its domestic market.

 

Investment Opportunities: Equities and Fixed Income

Equity:

La technology, with the rise of the IAIt will continue to be the main driver of equity markets, especially in the United States. This growth will also indirectly benefit industries such as construction (because of the new data centers), the public services (higher demand for electricity) and companies in materialsOther sectors of interest to investors in 2026 will be the Bank’s most emblematic landmarks, the pharmacist, luxury goods, the sector sanitary and the actions Industrial. The actions of small and medium capitalization They will also expand the investment universe, with Asia emerging as a growth engine in emerging markets.

 

Dirk Steffen, Chief Investment Officer EMEA & Global Chief Investment Strategist, warns of the need for discipline: “While we expect a universe of attractive investment opportunities in the markets, corrections are possible throughout 2026, whether due to profit-taking, disappointing corporate earnings, or concerns about a supposed AI bubbleIn an environment of persistent market uncertainty and potential short-term setbacks, investors should act with discipline and practice a active risk management".

 

Fixed Income and Commodities:

 

En fixed rentBonds will remain attractive, and it is anticipated that will reward durationDeutsche Bank expects positive real returns of public debt in both Europe and the US. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond is projected to reach 4,15% and the German Bund 10-year bond is set at the 2,70% by the end of 2026.

 

The bonds with Investment grade (IG) Dollar and euro spreads will remain near historic lows. In emerging market bonds, the quality that should be the priority.

 

Finally, in raw materials, a is expected greater upside potential for gold in 2026, driven by strong demand from central banks. Regarding the oilPrices are expected to stabilize at low levels due to a high production surplus, the largest in the history of the sector.