The hegemony of the dollar, the end of Russian gas in the EU, and the new US security strategy are shaping the global economic agenda.

 

The international financial landscape reaffirms, once again, the supremacy of the US dollar. According to the latest UNCTAD data, the The dollar is involved in 90% of foreign exchange transactions globally. Its influence has skyrocketed in the SWIFT system, where its market share has grown ten points in the last five years, reaching 50% of payments processedAlthough its weight in central bank reserves has fallen slightly to 55%, this reduction has not benefited a single rival currency, but has been dispersed among currencies such as the euro, the renminbi, and gold. This hegemony gives Washington a key geopolitical advantage, but exposes developing countries to high exchange rate vulnerability due to their debt issued in US dollars.

 

Energy shift in Europe and stalemate on the Ukrainian front In a decision of strategic importance, the 27 EU member states have agreed to permanently halt imports of Russian gas and gradually eliminate oil from Russia. The agreed timetable sets the end of purchases of liquefied natural gas (LNG) by the end of 2026 and of pipeline gas by [date missing]. 2027 SeptemberDespite Hungary's opposition, which will challenge the measure, Brussels seeks to cut off funding to the Kremlin.

 

Meanwhile, the conflict in Ukraine remains unresolved. Despite reaffirmed support for Kyiv from Germany, France, and the United Kingdom, US pressure to force a peace agreement is evident. Russia, which has made recent territorial gains in Kharkiv and Donetsk, is demanding that Ukraine relinquish 20% of Donbas, a point of contention that remains insurmountable for the time being.

 

Latin America: Brazilian slowdown and changes in the Caribbean The economy of Brazil has raised alarms after registering growth of barely a 0,1% quarter-on-quarterHigh interest rates (15%) and household debt are weighing down consumption, putting pressure on the Central Bank to accelerate monetary easing before the 2026 elections.

 

In the Caribbean, the electoral landscape is mixed. San Vicente y las GrenadinesThe conservative NDP has ended 24 years of Labour government, promising a pro-investment shift and a move away from ALBA. Conversely, in Santa LucíaThe ruling party has consolidated its power thanks to its prudent economic management. Meanwhile, Haiti It is trying to move towards the polls with a key decree, although gang violence makes the proposed date of August 2026 unrealistic.

 

Asia: The Indian "miracle" and the tension in Taiwan India India stands apart from global uncertainty with an economic scenario that analysts describe as "idyllic." With inflation at historic lows (2,2%), the Reserve Bank of India has cut interest rates to 5,25% and raised its growth forecast to 7,3%The country seems immune, for now, to US tariffs.

 

Tensions reignite in the Pacific after Trump signs the Taiwan Assurance Implementation ActThis legislation, which deepens official ties between Washington and Taipei, has provoked the ire of China, which calls it a red line. In Southeast Asia, violence has resurfaced along the border between Thailand and Cambodia, with armed clashes that have left victims and displaced persons.

 

The new "America First" doctrine and instability in Africa and the Middle East The White House has unveiled its new National Security Strategy, based on the principle America FirstThe document proposes a "Trump Corollary" to revive the Monroe Doctrine in the Western Hemisphere and prioritizes technological competition with China, although it surprisingly fails to identify Beijing as the primary existential threat. Regarding Europe, the strategy is critical, suggesting that the transatlantic link is broken and supporting nationalist-leaning political movements.

 

In Africa, instability sets the pattern. Benin It has suffered an attempted coup, thwarted by the loyalty of the Armed Forces and air support from Nigeria. In the Democratic Republic of CongoDespite the signing of a US-brokered peace agreement in Washington with Rwanda, the reality on the ground shows an expansion of the M23 rebels.

 

Finally, in the Middle East, Syria It sees the slow return of refugees after the fall of the al-Assad regime, although the lack of basic services threatens the process. YemenThe country is effectively fracturing with an offensive by southern separatists supported by the United Arab Emirates, who have taken control of critical infrastructure from the internationally recognized government.

 

Source: CESCE