A new technical note from the organization warns that, while the agreement avoids a large-scale trade war, it penalizes the competitiveness of European goods. Spain faces a moderate overall impact thanks to its services surplus, but sectors such as automotive and agri-food are suffering from the new tariff barrier.
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El Club of Spanish Exporters and Investors has assessed the trade agreement signed in July 2025 between United States and European UnionAccording to the organization, the agreement restores certainty to transatlantic relations, but establishes unequal treatment where European products face a 15% tariff compared to total exemption for US industrial goods.
A "trade peace" agreement with competitiveness costs
The new Technical Note, prepared by Rafael Pampillón Olmedo, professor of the CEU San Pablo University and IE UniversityThe analysis defines the current scenario as a purchase of stability in exchange for accepting asymmetrical conditions. It emphasizes that the worst-case scenario has been avoided: a trade war with across-the-board tariffs of 30% that would have been devastating for the EU economy.
However, the price to be paid breaks the principle of reciprocity. While Brussels maintains tariffs at 0% on industrial products from EE. UUWashington has raised tariffs on goods from UE from 4,5% previously up to 15%. “Europe has bought stability in exchange for accepting an asymmetrical deal”, Said Pampillón, who adds that this situation “It reinforces Europe’s dependence on the US for energy, technology and security.”.
| Commercial Indicator | Previous situation | New Deal (2025) | Social Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| US tariffs on EU goods | 4,5% (approx.) | 15% | Loss of competitiveness |
| EU tariff on US goods | Variables | 0% (Industrialists) | Facilitated entry to Europe |
| Maximum Tariff Threat | N/A | 30% (Disabled) | Business certainty |
| Spanish exports to the USA | ~5% of the total | Subject to new framework | Moderate global impact |
Sectoral impact in Spain: between protecting services and industrial risk
The macroeconomic impact for Spain Growth is expected to be moderate compared to other European partners. This is because only 5% of Spanish goods exports are destined for [unspecified destination]. United StatesFurthermore, the structure of Spain's trade balance works in its favor: although there is a deficit in goods, the country registers a surplus in services, driven notably by tourism. “Services cannot be subject to tariffs.”the expert recalls, pointing to this sector as a key buffer.
However, the press release warns of specific risks in industries where Spain It competes with countries that enjoy lower tariffs, such as Morocco o TürkiyeThe most exposed sectors are:
- Automotive: The average tariff triples, going from 5% to 15%, directly affecting vehicles and components.
- Olive oil: Although the extreme 30% tariff is avoided, the new framework maintains uncertainty in a traditionally punished sector.
- Wine: La Spanish Wine Federation It warns about the possible displacement of its products in the US market in favor of competitors with a lower tax burden.
Additionally, the European commitment to increase purchases of US gas and oil could keep energy prices at high levels, adding inflationary pressure to the economy.
Future strategy: diversification and added value
Given this scenario, the Exporters Club He urges people not to give in to resignation and proposes a roadmap based on strategy. Pampillón strongly recommends the market diversificationlooking towards economies like those of Mercosuror Asian women like India e Indonesiaas well as strengthening ties with current partners such as Mexico, Canada, Japan o South Korea.
On the other hand, the elimination of European tariffs on American machinery and equipment presents an opportunity to import technology at more competitive prices, which could improve domestic productivity. “It is necessary to protect the most exposed sectors in the short term, but also to turn this new context into an opportunity to gain international presence with more innovative and value-added products.”the analysis concludes.
Key points and frequently asked questions about the EU-US Trade Agreement.
Why is the new trade agreement considered asymmetrical?
Because it breaks the traditional reciprocity: the United States imposes a 15% tariff on products from the European Union, while Brussels allows the entry of American industrial goods with a 0% tariff.
How does this measure affect Spanish companies?
The overall impact is moderate because only 5% of goods exports go to the US, and the services sector (tourism) is exempt. However, sectors such as automobiles, olive oil, and wine are losing competitiveness compared to other countries.
What does the Exporters Club recommend to deal with the situation?
It recommends diversifying markets towards Asia and Latin America, supporting the affected sectors (agrifood and automotive) and taking advantage of the elimination of tariffs on the import of US machinery to improve internal competitiveness.
