Cesce's latest weekly report reveals a highly volatile scenario: from Beijing's trade consolidation and macroeconomic stabilization in Uruguay, to energy uncertainty in Cuba and the new tariff fronts opened by Washington in the Arctic.
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Cesce It analyzes the key economic and geopolitical events of the week of January 12-18, 2026, highlighting the record trade surplus of Chinathe political transition in Venezuela and the tensions in the OTANProtagonists such as Donald Trump, Delcy Rodríguez and the government of Pekín They set the agenda. The reconfiguration of supply chains and diplomatic conflicts are redefining the risk map for foreign trade.
China: Export strength in the face of the trade war
Despite tariff tensions, the economy of China has demonstrated remarkable resilience by the end of 2025. According to data compiled by CesceThe Asian giant not only met its official growth target of 5%, but also recorded a historical trade surplusThis dynamism is supported by a successful market diversification strategy, diverting flows towards the Unión Europea and Southeast Asia to offset the 20% drop in sales to Estados Unidos.
Although growth slowed to 4,5% year-on-year in the last quarter, the external sector remains the main driver, in contrast to domestic consumption which, according to the analysis, "has yet to take off".
| China Macroeconomic Indicator (2025) | Recorded Data |
|---|---|
| Annual GDP growth | 5% (Goal achieved) |
| Trade surplus | $1,2 trillion (Record) |
| Export growth (December) | 6,6% |
| US market share | Lows since the 90s |
Latin America: The Venezuelan transition and the Uruguayan adjustment
The landscape in Latin America is marked by profound structural changes. Venezuela, after the capture of Nicolás Maduro, Delcy Rodríguez He has assumed the interim presidency with the backing of the Armed Forces. The new scenario includes a reform of the Hydrocarbons Law driven by Chavismo to attract foreign investment, conditioned by negotiations with Washington. Donald Trump and the director of the CIA They have already established direct contacts focused on oil and security.
This situation has had a domino effect on CubaVenezuela is facing a severe energy crisis. Crude oil shipments from Venezuelan ports stopped in early January 2026, leaving a gap of 27.000 barrels per day that even China ni Rusia have explicitly supplied
Stability and challenges in Uruguay
On the other hand, Uruguay It presents a more stable risk profile but with fiscal challenges for the president. Yamandú OrsiThe economy closed 2025 with controlled inflation and the beginning of adherence to the Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
| Uruguay Indicator (Closing 2025) | Figure |
|---|---|
| GDP growth | Between 2,2% and 2,4% |
| Inflation | 3,65% (Minimum in 20 years) |
| Type of interest | 7,5% (50 bp cut) |
| Fiscal deficit | 4% of GDP |
Geopolitics: Greenland and the Middle East
The administration of Donald Trump has raised tensions with its allies in the OTAN. Starting February 1st, Estados Unidos It will impose tariffs of 10% — which will escalate to 25% in June — on eight countries of the Alliance that carried out maneuvers in GroenlandiaThe US president insists on the "acquisition" of the island to curb the influence of Rusia y China. The Unión Europea, led by figures such as Emmanuel Macron, is preparing countermeasures worth 93.000 billion euros.
In the Middle East, the "second phase" of the peace plan is underway. An Executive Board has been established to Gaza which includes high-profile global names such as Jared Kushner, Tony Blair y Marco Rubio, a composition that has generated friction with the Israeli prime minister, Benjamín Netanyahu.
Key points and frequently asked questions about Country Risk
What impact does the climate have on the global economy according to the report?
La Organización Meteorológica Mundial It confirmed that 2025 was one of the three warmest years on record (+1,44°C above the pre-industrial era), causing extreme phenomena such as hurricane MelissaThis increases the physical risk to infrastructure and supply chains.
How does the situation in Russia affect the energy market?
Estados Unidos has seized the sixth oil tanker from Russia's "ghost fleet." This puts tax revenues at risk for Moscú estimated at between $87.000 billion and $100.000 billion annually, hindering their ability to export sanctioned crude.
What happened in the Portuguese elections?
In the first round of the presidential elections, the socialist António José Seguro He won with 31,1% of the vote. He will face the far-right leader on February 8. André Ventura (Chega), who obtained 23,5%.
Source: Cesce
