The United States bombs nuclear facilities in Iran, triggering an unprecedented escalation and fears of global destabilization.

This morning has witnessed a US military intervention in Iran, which has bombed three strategic nuclear facilities in the cities of Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan. This military operation, confirmed by US President Donald Trump, represents a turning point in the growing crisis between Iran and Israel and threatens with further destabilize the already volatile Middle East region.

 

The attack has caused a immediate and forceful Iranian response, which resulted in the launching of a wave of missiles against Israeli territory, hitting Tel Aviv and leaving at least 16 people injured, one of them in moderate condition.

 

A bold attack and international condemnation

 

President Trump used the social media platform Truth Social to announce the success of the operation: “We have successfully completed our strike against all three of Iran’s nuclear facilities, including Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan (...) All aircraft have now left Iranian airspace.” In a message seeking a balance between military action and a call for calm, Trump added: “Now is the time for peace. There will be either peace or a tragedy for Iran far greater than we have witnessed over the past eight days.”

 

The reaction from Israel was one of unwavering support. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu effusively congratulated Trump for his "bold decision" and emphasized that "peace is achieved through strength (...) Tonight, @realDonaldTrump and the United States acted with great strength." Netanyahu did not hesitate to describe the attacks as "insurmountable" and thanked the US president for his leadership, stating that "his bold decision to target Iran's nuclear facilities was the right one and will forever change world history."

 

For its part, Iran was quick to describe the attack as an "extremely dangerous, illegal, and criminal" action, warning that it reserves "all options" to respond. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi denounced that "the United States, a permanent member of the UN Security Council, has committed a grave violation of the United Nations Charter and international law by attacking Iran's peaceful nuclear facilities." Araghchi emphasized that the attack "will have lasting consequences" and that Iran is considering "all options to protect its sovereignty, interests, and people."

 

 

Global alarm and the imperative of diplomacy

 

The international community has expressed its deep concern at the risk of a further military escalation. UN Secretary-General António Guterres expressed his alarm: “I am deeply alarmed by the United States’ use of force against Iran today. This is a dangerous escalation in a region already on edge, and a direct threat to international peace and security. There is a growing risk that this conflict could spiral rapidly out of control, with catastrophic consequences for civilians, the region, and the world. There is no military solution. The only way forward is diplomacy. The only hope is peace.”

 

Meanwhile, Iran's nuclear authority has assured that no casualties have been reported and that the country's nuclear program "will not stop." The situation remains at a delicate balance, and the next few hours will be crucial to determine whether the region is heading towards a new spiral of violence or if the diplomatic route manages to prevail.

 

Economic repercussions: either a negotiated peace is signed quickly, or we have a global tsunami in the making.

 

The escalation of the war between Israel and Iran not only threatens regional stability, but also projects a shadow of uncertainty over the global economy, with potential effects on multiple fronts that are already generating concern in the markets and economic decision-making centers.

 

One of the most immediate and worrying impacts is the risk of a uncontrolled global inflation and a sustained increase in the price of oil is emerging as the main driver of inflation. Experts warn that if the conflict were to disrupt Iranian production or, worse still, close the vital Strait of Hormuz, through which an alarming 20% ​​of the world's crude oil passes, the price of a barrel could soar to $130This catastrophic scenario, according to analysts, could raise inflation in the United States to 6% by the end of 2025. Europe, for its part, would face a reactivation of inflationary pressures, particularly in energy-intensive industries, which would reverse the recent hard-won slowdown. Production costs in sectors as diverse as food, textiles, and chemicals would skyrocket, directly passing them on to consumers and affecting household purchasing power.

 

In this context of uncertainty, the American dollar ha reinforced its traditional role as a safe haven. A 1% appreciation against currencies such as the yen and the Swiss franc has been observed in the last week, a clear indication of a search for assets considered more stable. A further escalation of the conflict could intensify this trend, although a possible interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve to combat inflation could limit its relative strength in the medium term.

 

The implications for public finances are also significant, especially for the United States. A prolonged conflict would undoubtedly would increase military spending, which would exacerbate the country's already swollen deficit. The Trump administration has already deployed troops to the region, and direct or prolonged intervention would require considerable additional funding. The combination of higher inflation and a potential economic recession would reduce tax revenues, while increasing social and defense spending needs, creating a perfect storm for the public coffers.

 

For european economy, the outlook is especially bleak, with the latent risk of stagflationThe eurozone could be immersed in a scenario of high energy inflation and low growth, a situation reminiscent of the 1973 oil crisis following the Yom Kippur War. The industrial sector would suffer particularly, with energy-intensive companies at a clear competitive disadvantage due to rising input costs. The European Central Bank (ECB) could be forced to raise interest rates more aggressively to contain inflation, which, while necessary, would further slow the region's already fragile economic growth.

 

Finally, the China's reaction is a key factor in the global equation. Beijing has opted for a de-escalation diplomacy, condemning Israel's actions and urging the United States to avoid further intervention, under the premise that "the world will not be at peace if the Middle East is unstable." Energy concerns are palpable, as more than 40% of oil imported by China originates from the Middle East. A closure of the Strait of Hormuz would critically disrupt its supplies, although the country could try to compensate with reserves or agreements with other OPEC+ members. Ultimately, Beijing seeks to avoid damage to its vast trade and global supply chains by actively promoting negotiations to "lower the temperature" of a conflict that, if out of control, would have global economic repercussions.

 

Be extremely attentive...