This growth, driven primarily by a robust 6,6% increase in production, projects an optimistic outlook with an expected 4,2% expansion by 2025, which could bring revenues close to €89.000 billion. However, this encouraging overall performance masks a worrying reality in the Basic Chemicals subsector, vital to numerous value chains, which is severely affected by exorbitant energy prices in Europe, compromising its competitiveness and putting its long-term future at risk.
Development:
The sector report corresponding to the end of 2024 reveals a dynamic Spanish chemical industry, capable of overcoming the economic and geopolitical challengesThe 6,6% growth in production volume marks a significant recovery after the slight contraction experienced in 2023, consolidating a positive trend that is expected to continue in 2025 With an expected increase of 3,2%. This increase brings the sector's cumulative growth to an impressive 27,3% for the period 2015-2025, a remarkable achievement in a global context marked by uncertainty.
La turnover accompanied this productive growth, increasing by 3,6% in 2024. While this increase is mainly supported by the production volume, prices experienced a slight fall of 0,7%, continuing a corrective trend after the significant increases in 2021 (+16,6%) and 2022 (+20,4%) that brought turnover to levels close to 90.000 billion euros. The drop in prices in 2023 (-6,6%) returned turnover to a more balanced position. By 2025, it is anticipated that the cCombination of an increase in production (+3,2%) and a slight increase in prices (+1,5%) This will boost revenue by around 4,2%, exceeding €89.000 billion. However, it is important to note that 55% of the cumulative growth projected for the 2015-2025 period is intrinsically linked to price increases during this cycle.
In the field of foreign trade, the Spanish chemical sector maintained relative stability in 2024, with a slight increase in exports of 0,3%, reaching 59.166 billion euros. This modest growth is attributed to the economic stagnation of the main destination markets, such as France, Germany and Italy. By 2025, a 3% growth in the exports, driven by expectations of increased global demand, which could increase foreign sales to almost €61.000 billion. The disappearance of the impact of extraordinary vaccine sales in 2021 and 2022, which contributed nearly €10.000 billion annually to exports, no longer influences the current figures. Despite this, cumulative export growth for the period 2015-2025 is estimated at a remarkable 82,2%, albeit with a greater contribution from price than from volume.
With the data from 2024, the The chemical sector consolidates its position as the second largest exporter in the Spanish industry, generating 17,1% of the country's total turnover in the international markets, surpassed only by the automotive industry. Imports, meanwhile, increased by 1,5% to €62.085 billion, bringing the export/import coverage ratio to 95,3%, an improvement of 11 percentage points compared to the 84,5% recorded in 2015.
La United States tariff policy The shift in the US toward the European Union is causing palpable concern in the sector. While general negotiations are being advocated to mitigate its impact, enabling sector-specific negotiations for chemicals is considered crucial if general talks fail to yield results before the summer. Failure to reach satisfactory agreements could reduce the sector's growth forecasts to zero.
Beyond tariffs, the Spanish chemical sector expresses its Concern about the possible indirect effects resulting from the diversion of production from exporting countries to Europe if US demand contracts. In this context, the European Commission and the Spanish Government are urged to accelerate the implementation of measures that boost competitiveness, especially regarding energy costs, considered the main obstacle for the continent's basic industries. It also advocates considering the adoption of countermeasures if global negotiations do not yield reasonable results. Currently, Spanish chemical product exports to the United States amount to €3.505 billion, while imports from the United States reach €8.129 billion.
Regarding US trade policy, Feique is committed to reaching a global agreement, but if this is not satisfactory, it would be necessary to open sectoral negotiations regarding chemical products.
In terms of employment, the chemical sector continued its positive trend in 2024, with a 4% increase in the number of employees, reaching 240.050 direct jobs. This figure reverses the slight 0,4% decline recorded in 2023. Hiring expectations for 2025 are equally optimistic, with a 3% increase expected, which could bring the number of direct jobs in the chemical industry to nearly 247.300. A notable fact is the significant increase in the hiring of women, who represented 2024% of the sector's workforce in 46,8, compared to 38% in 2015.
Considering indirect and induced effects, The chemical sector currently generates 816.200 jobs, representing 5,5% of the private sector's salaried workforce. In terms of job quality, the 2023 data reveal 94% permanent contracts and an average annual salary of almost €42.000. The final figure for 2024, once published, is expected to rise to €45.000 per employee per year, a salary that is 37,6% higher than the average industrial salary and 57,8% higher than the national average.
Despite the overall positive outlook, the situation of Basic Chemistry It is presented as a critical point. This subsector, responsible for the initial transformation of raw materials and therefore with a high energy demand, is suffering the consequences of disproportionate energy costs. Basic Chemicals is fundamental to the country's strategic autonomy, as it is present in numerous value chains in key sectors such as healthcare, food, construction, automotive, and defense, among others.
Since 2021, the growth of the chemical sector has been mainly supported by the strength of Consumer and Specialty Chemicals, and the Pharmaceutical Chemistry, while Basic Chemicals, which represents a third of total production, has experienced a continuous decline in production due to the rising cost of gas and electricity.
High energy costs have simultaneously and dramatically impacted all European electricity and gas-intensive sectors, as noted in the Draghi report and in the European Commission's analyses in its communications. Clean Industrial Deal and Affordable Energy Action Plan. In 2024, Basic Chemicals saw an accumulated drop of 8 percentage points in production since 2015, a decline that is expected to moderate to 5,2% by the end of 2025 due to a foreseeable easing of energy prices.
Until 2021, Basic Chemicals experienced solid growth, driven by the recovery in demand following the pandemic, despite the start of an upward trend in energy prices. However, in 2022, with demand normalized, the invasion of Ukraine and the spectacular rise in energy prices (+251,2% for electricity and +833,3% for gas compared to 2019) generated a production loss of 11 percentage points in this subsector. This trend intensified in 2023 with a further drop of 9 points, bringing the cumulative figure since 2015 to a critical -13,6%.
In 2024, a greater moderation in prices, although the electricity market recorded an average price of €63/MWh (32% higher than pre-pandemic levels) and gas (TTF) stood at €36/MWh (150% higher than 2019 levels). This allowed a recovery of 6,5 points in the Basic Chemicals production index. Despite this improvement, at the end of 2024, the subsector was still 8 points below 2015 levels, a worrying figure, although less serious than the situation in the European Union as a whole (-24,0%) and in competing countries such as France (-14,5%), Germany and Italy (-19,7%).
La productive recovery The growth observed in 2024 and the expected, albeit more moderate, growth for 2025 are driven by increased demand and expectations of improved prices in the short and medium term. However, Europe's competitive weakness persists in the face of the more favorable energy prices offered by the United States and China to its industries, allowing them to capitalize on productive investments.
Given this situation, the Spanish chemical sector considers It is imperative that the Government assume the recommendations of the Community executive, focused on reducing the impact of tolls, charges and taxes on electro-intensive companies, as well as maximizing the limits of existing compensation and demand management models. The fundamental objective is to achieve a final electricity price of €40/MWh for electro-intensive companies in Spain.
To achieve this objective, specific measures are proposed, such as: (1) the repeal (or application of a 0% rate) of the 7% Electricity Production Value Tax; (2) the transfer of part of the cost of Adjustment Services to system charges; (3) the permanent establishment of the 80/90% reduction in access tolls; (4) the reduction of the impact of the Electricity Tax and the National Energy Efficiency Fund; and (5) the maximization of the volume of offsets for indirect CO2 emissions up to 900 million euros, incorporating the Basic Chemicals and other electro-intensive subsectors into Annex 1 of the State aid guidelines in the context of the greenhouse gas emission rights trading scheme.
It is argued that achieving an electricity price of around €40/MWh would place the Spanish electro-intensive sectors in a very favorable competitive position compared to their main European and international competitors, in addition to incentivizing investment in electrification where feasible.
Finally, the Spanish chemical sector faces the challenge of transition to climate neutrality, estimating an investment need of around €65.000 billion between 2025 and 2050 to reduce its CO2 emissions by 13,5 million tons. This figure includes €34.500 billion in CAPEX, €17.250 billion in production and marketing downtime costs during transformations, and €13.250 billion for the maintenance of other assets. To achieve these objectives, the sector will need to increase its average investment rate of the last three years (€400 billion/year) by €2.200 million annually.
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