Brussels and Washington seal historic trade pact and set a general tariff of 15% to avoid a tariff war

The meeting at the Turnberry golf resort in Scotland ended weeks of uncertainty and averted a scenario of mutual trade retaliation estimated at more than 90.000 millones de eurosThe new tariff framework, although described by both parties as "unequal", is considered a necessary lesser evil to return the stability and predictability to businesses and consumers in the two largest economies on the planet.

The core of the agreement establishes a general tariff of 15% for most industrial and agricultural products crossing the Atlantic. However, the pact goes further and includes significant concessions from Europe. The European Union has pledged to increase its purchases of US energy in 750.000 million and promote investments in North American territory worth 600.000 million. In addition, the acquisition of US military equipment by member countries will be increased.

Not all products fall under the same umbrella. The following are excluded from the general agreement: steel and aluminum, which will continue to bear surcharges of up to 50%, and the drugs, for which specific rates will be designed in the future. This model follows the path of the agreement previously signed between the United States and Japan.

The voices of the protagonists

Despite the difficulties of the negotiation, the leaders of both blocs defended the need for the pact. President Donald Trump, who before the agreement was skeptical, claiming that there was "a 50% chance, maybe less", celebrated the final result: "This will be the biggest agreement of all.". He had previously insisted on the need to rebalance the trade balance: "The most important thing for me is to get a fair deal. The United States has a deficit and we need to rebalance it.".

For her part, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, emphasized the magnitude of the joint market — "800 million people" — and the relief that the agreement represents. "It will bring stability and predictability to businesses and consumers on both sides of the Atlantic, instead of the constant changes of recent months.", she declared. Von der Leyen was blunt in describing the scenario that has been avoided: "The only alternative was an unprecedented trade war that would have paralyzed trade between our continents.".

Impact on the European and Spanish industry

For European industrial sectors, the agreement presents a bittersweet outlook. The 15% tariff represents a increase in export costs to the United States, which could undermine the competitiveness of key sectors such as machinery, industrial components, automobiles, and technology. This new barrier could encourage relocation part of European production to US soil to avoid tariffs.

In the case of Spain, the impact is especially significant. The Government estimates that directly affected exports could reach 15.100 millones de euros, a figure that amounts to 22.700 million If the indirect effect is included, which represents approximately 83% of total Spanish sales To united states.

The sector agrifood Spanish is one of the most exposed. Iconic products such as the olive oil, wine and Serrano ham They face rising prices that threaten their leading position in the US market. However, the pact also opens up opportunities, such as attracting US investment to Europe and creating a predictable environment that, although more costly, is preferable to a complete trade standstill. For Spain, the challenge will be diversify markets and enhance added value of its products to maintain its global competitiveness.