Cesce analyzes the truce in the Middle East and the change of political cycle in Hungary

 

Between March 30 and April 12, 2026, Cesce highlights the truce between EE.UU. e Irán, the historic electoral victory of Péter Magyar en Hungría and the downward adjustment of growth forecasts for América Latina made by the Banco Mundial.

 

Impact of the conflict on food and energy security

 

Food prices have seen a significant increase during the month of March. According to the Organización de las Naciones Unidas para la Alimentación y la Agricultura (FAO), the price index became more expensive by 2,4 % compared to the previous month. This increase is a direct consequence of the rising cost of hydrocarbonwhich particularly affects production and transport costs.

 

The vegetable oils and the sugar They led the gains with increases of 5,1% and 7,2% respectively, driven by expectations of demand for biofuel production. Conversely, the cereals They showed more stable behavior with a 1,5% increase thanks to the current oversupply. However, the FAO warns that a prolongation of the conflict in Irán Beyond May, it could severely distort the fertilizer market, forcing adjustments in global agricultural production.

 

Category (Index) FAO)	Monthly Variation (March 2026)
General Food Index	+ 2,4 %
Vegetable oils	+ 5,1 %
Sugar	+ 7,2 %
Grains	+ 1,5 %

 

Latin America: Slowdown and regional tensions

 

El Banco Mundial has lowered its growth forecasts for América Latina and the Caribeplacing them in a 2,1 % for 2026, compared to the previously projected 2,5%. The institution attributes this slowdown to the weakness of investmentHigh financing costs and energy volatility. While Argentina shows signs of improvement after its macroeconomic stabilization, major economies such as Brasil y México They experience a noticeable slowdown.

 

In the diplomatic sphere, the tension between Colombia y Ecuador It has worsened. Quito has raised the surcharge on Colombian imports from 50% to 100%, a measure to which Bogotá has responded with equivalent tariffs. The exchange of statements between Gustavo Petro and the Ecuadorian government regarding the situation of Jorge Glas, described by the Colombian president as "political prisoner", has paralyzed the official channels of dialogue.

 

For its part, Perú held a first round of elections on April 12, confirming a extreme fragmentation. Keiko Fujimori She leads the count with 17% of the votes, followed by Rafael López AliagaThe two will compete for the presidency in a second round scheduled for June 7, in a country desperately seeking stability after having had nine presidents in a decade.

 

Diplomatic shift in Venezuela and stability in Asia

 

The relationship between Washington y Caracas It is experiencing a strategic thaw. The reopening of the US embassy and the lifting of personal sanctions against Delcy Rodríguez They facilitate political dialogue and private investment in the mining and energy sectors of Venezuela, under a scheme that prioritizes economic openness over immediate electoral definition.

 

In Southeast Asia, the ASEAN has approved the creation of a financial instrument of 30.000 million, supported by the Banco Asiático de Desarrollo (BAD), to protect regional stability until 2030 against tariffs of EE.UU. and the energy crisis. At the same time, a historic summit has taken place between Xi Jinping y Cheng Li-wun, President of Kuomintang (KMT) of Taiwánwhich has culminated in a framework of cooperation for stability in the Strait.

 

Energy and geopolitical crisis: Russia and the Middle East

 

Rusia has recorded its highest crude oil export revenues since the start of the war with Ucraniataking advantage of the price increase due to the conflict in IránHowever, its refining infrastructure has suffered serious damage following Ukrainian drone attacks, which have rendered at least 20% of its export capacity inoperative, forcing it to Moscú to prohibit gasoline exports until July 2026.

 

Oil Exports of Rusia (Maritime)	Weekly Value (Approx.)
Early January 2026	Less than $1.000 billion
End of March 2026	Almost $2.500 billion

 

En Oriente Medio, the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between EE.UU. e Irán April 7th brought temporary relief to the price of a barrel of oil, which fell below $95. However, the lack of progress in negotiations Islamabad and the tensions in the Strait of HormuzWhere Donald Trump The threat to block Iranian exports starting April 13 has pushed the price back above $100.

 

A changing of the guard in Hungary and European rearmament

 

The elections in Hungría The events of April 12th have marked a historic milestone. Péter Magyar, at the head of the party Tisza, has obtained a two-thirds majority in Parliament, achieving 138 seats compared to 55 for Fidesz de Viktor OrbánWith an 80% turnout, the electorate has punished the economic downturn and international isolation, opting for a program aligned with the Unión Europea which seeks to unlock 18.000 billion euros in frozen funds.

 

Meanwhile, the Unión Europea accelerates Common Rearmament through the instrument SAFEmobilizing 150.000 billion euros to strengthen the defense industrial base. Francia and República Checa They have been the last countries to receive authorization for their national plans, framed within the ambitious strategy Readiness 2030.

 

Country	Instrument Assignment SAFE (Defense)
Francia	15.090 billion €
República Checa	2.060 billion €
Total Mobilized (Goal) SAFE)	150.000 billion €

 

Financial success in Sub-Saharan Africa

 

La República Democrática del Congo has successfully debuted in international markets with its first issue of Eurobonds worth $1.250 billion. Investor appetite has been remarkable, with demand quadrupling supply, thanks to the country's solid growth and its position as a leader in production of cobalt and copper.

 

By contrast, Nigeria It faces a critical security situation. A mistake in an Air Force airstrike in the state of Yobe has caused a civilian massacre, while the government of Tinubu struggle to contain the insurgency of Boko Haram and manage the pressure of Washington on the protection of Christian communities.

 

Source: Cesce

 

Key points and frequently asked questions about the international situation

 

What impact has the US-Iran truce had on oil?

Initially, crude oil fell 15% to $95 per barrel. However, due to limited diplomatic progress and uncertainty over maritime control in the Strait of Hormuz, the price has once again exceeded the $100 threshold.

 

Why has Viktor Orbán lost power in Hungary?

Economic strain, high inflationary pressure, and international isolation within the Unión Europea have mobilized 80% of the electorate in favor of Péter Magyar, who promises to restore the rule of law to unlock European funds.

 

What is the main economic challenge for Latin America in 2026?

According to Banco MundialThe region faces weak investment and high financing costs. Growth has been revised downward to 2,1%, hampered by limited fiscal space and volatile global energy prices.