Cesce celebrates its XIV Conference under the motto geopolitical disruption and paradigm shift

More than 700 people have attended, both in person and online.

Fernando Salazar highlighted that CESCE has been operating for 50 years and "our job is none other than to provide security to economic transactions" from a comprehensive approach.

---

 

Concepts such as deglobalization, strategic autonomy or energy self-sufficiency are creeping into conversations with increasing frequency, and if anything can be said about 2022, it is that it will be the year that marks the paradigm shift in the international order.

 

Aware of this reality, in part due to its 50 years of experience in business internationalization and risk coverage, Cesce has chosen geopolitics to structure its annual conference. Its president, Fernando Salazar, began the event by sharing a reflection "the world is an uncertain place, but today it is even more so", and with the intention of shedding some light or, at least, trying to understand some of its prisms, Cesce has brought together national and international analysts to talk about it.

 

As it has done in its previous editions, the credit and surety insurer has invited a public figure with authority to talk about these issues and inaugurate the meeting. The protagonist in this fourteenth edition has been Martin Wolf, associate editor and chief economic commentator of Financial TimesWolf, who has addressed all the issues shaping the global economy and offered in-depth analysis of many of them, emphasized the uncertainty we have been experiencing for some years now. Being aware of this, understanding future risks and our real possibilities will help us face the future with confidence and prepare for it, because, as he explained, paraphrasing his compatriot William Shakespeare, "Being prepared is everything."

 

The accredited journalist has structured his presentation in the degrees of probability of future events, some very improbable individually, but with serious global consequences, and others that will almost certainly occur and will determine the new world order and the geopolitical scenario. Thus, he has pointed out that the analysis of the trends of recent decades leads us to affirm that the demographic balance of the world is shifting drastically, away from high-income countries, towards the Sub-Saharan Africa. The climate change is a reality and we will almost certainly exceed the 1,5ºC increase above the pre-industrial average in 2030, causing major global climate instability. Furthermore, he has pointed to the global interconnection total in the next 20 years due to Internet access and the continuous and sustained growth of the world economy, as almost certain facts.

 

In the opinion of Reyes Maroto: foreign trade will continue to be one of the engines of development and change for Spain and this is largely due to the efforts of companies like Cesce that have been working for 50 years to promote the internationalization of Spanish trade.

 

In relation to the probable events that Wolf has identified, and on which governments, institutions and companies must focus, he pointed out, among others: the rise of the economy China, which will be as big as that of United States by 2030; the end of globalization and the rise of virtual globalization; the maintained over-indebtedness; the inflationary hangover derived from very strict monetary policies that end up causing a sharp recession; the high debt post-covid and post-war legacy of Ukraine; and finally the arrival of a time of greater state interventionism.

 

Before finishing his speech and, despite the fact that Wolf has insisted that these were events of low probability, although not zero, he has pointed to a resurgence of global growth as a possible positive scenario, and other undesirable scenarios such as: a great global depression, irreversible climate disasters, unstoppable migratory flows, new pandemics or even nuclear war.

 

The finishing touch to the Cesce 2022 conference was put on by the Minister of Industry, Commerce and Tourism, Reyes Maroto. His words have encouraged the need to establish new strategies and face them with determination and speed. In this context, as she has pointed out, the UEuropean Union and Spain have a fundamental role as references in the defense of democracy, justice and international security. As you have said, foreign trade will continue to be one of the engines of development and change for Spain and this is largely due to the efforts of companies like Cesce that have been working for 50 years to promote the internationalization of Spanish trade.

 

Beatriz Reguero has moderated the debate on the role of the European Union in the new geopolitical scenario

 

The first of the two round tables had Europe and its institutions as protagonists. Beatriz Reguero, Account Area Director of the State of Cesce, moderated the debate titled “The European Union at the crossroads".

 

They have accompanied him Felix Arteaga, senior security researcher and Enrique Feas, Principal economics researcher, both at the Elcano Royal Institute; and Susana del Rio, director of the Expert Group “Convention on the Future of Europe”.

 

Arteaga started with a forceful statement “the European Union is in danger in terms of defense and physical security” and based his statement on the circumstance of geopolitical disruption. And the member states had always competed in a context ordered by laws, norms and institutions, but this order has been diluted to give way to a disordered scenario in which all relationship instruments are used as weapons (trade, technology, migrations…). For the EU to be able to compete in this new order, Arteaga explained that “the first thing is to become aware, secondly to adopt a geopolitical approach and finally to execute measures that mitigate these risks.”

 

Enrique Feás has highlighted the recent big change of the European Union, “has lost his innocence and has opened his eyes as to how the world works both internally and externally.” In this sense, internally it has discovered that half-hearted integration does not work because there are many more European public goods than we thought: health security, the green transition, energy independence or defense are public goods and their national provision is insufficient. , which inevitably forces

to promote solutions based on integration. Externally, the European Union, as Feás explained, has changed its external vision in the sense that, in a multipolar world, the soft power it had been exercising is not enough.

 

Susana del Río has highlighted the European Union's capacity to respond to the challenges that have shaken the world's foundations in recent years, such as the Covid crisis or the war in Ukraine. Here the inter-institutional and institutional capacity and agility of the EU has been vital to provide a joint response based on intergenerational solidarity.

 

After a very exhaustive analysis of the main events that mark Europe's agenda, the speakers have finished and concluded with a message of hope for the attendees and that is that they believe that in the field of integration it is possible that unexpected changes will soon be seen. that positively affect old Europe and its common institutions, as the EU's latest global responses have demonstrated their tangible value for citizens.

 

International financing in the face of new trade patterns to be debated in the second round table

 

The session continued with a round table held under the title International financing in difficult times. Moderated by carmen rod, director of Operations on behalf of the State of Cesce, has had the participation of Silvia Iranzo, independent director at INDRA and ICO, respectively, and president of the INDRA Sustainability Commission; André Gazal, general director and head of Export Finance at Credit Agricole CIB; and Michael Ron, Director of International Relations at SACE and President of the Berne Union.

 

One of the topics discussed has been the monetary policy of the European Union together with the dilemmas of the Central Banks, an issue on which Iranzo has begun his intervention by ensuring that “global debt today is higher than in 2008 and private debt, In turn, it has multiplied by 10 in the last 10 years.” In this sense, the advisor of Indra and ICO considers that the situation “is going to lead to a slowdown in growth of 0,9% in advanced countries and 1,3% in emerging countries in the next 3 years,” he assured. For his part, Gazal has stated that both banks and ECAs have to be "more cautious" when it comes to lending money and carry out a "much more careful" risk analysis. The head of Credit Agricole CIB has emphasized “priority projects that are really needed: green transition and social project.”

 

Precisely the energy transition has been another of the threads of the session, a challenge that according to Ron involves "reconverting companies that are currently active in the fossil fuel sector" and where States "should also introduce support measures so that these companies can face the transition process.” Along these lines, Gazal considers that, although Europe has the "most ambitious" program in terms of energy transition, with the crisis in Ukraine "we run the risk that the funds planned for this transition will be taken away by energy shortages and problems of energy autonomy on our continent.”

 

The blows of the health crisis and the conflict in Ukraine have been the third major axis that occupied the round table. Iranzo has reflected on this matter, stating that "while with the pandemic we depended on China for medical supplies, now with the war we suffer from dependence on gas imports from Russia", ensuring that "the debate must focus on how we are going to guarantee global supply”, since “trading patterns will change”. For his part, Ron has stated that “the ECAs are living a fascinating time, since their activity, first with the pandemic and now with the war, has gone from export and internationalization to domestic markets” where, as he concludes, “we are going to continue giving help.”