Cesce presents International Panorama 2023, its analysis of the major risks and challenges of the global economy

Report

International Panorama 2023 is made up of four articles prepared by Cesce's Country Risk analysts and which deal with current issues, relevant in the short and long term.

Cesce has presented at its corporate headquarters International Panorama 2023, one of its most relevant publications to know and understand the main challenges that are currently taking place in the international arena in terms economic, social and political. The new edition of this study becomes more relevant this year than ever due to the momentous events that are altering the global order.

In the words of Beatriz Reguero, director of the Account Area of the State of Cesce, "the International Panorama report returns for another year with its innate ability to analyze in detail the main challenges that will condition international political and economic evolution in the medium term." Reguero has taken advantage of the opportunity to invite companies and investors to carefully consult this study "along with the risk map and our other country reports" available on the Cesce website.

International Panorama 2023 is made up of four articles prepared by analysts from Cesce Country Risk and that deal with current issues, relevant in the short and long term, coordinated by María José Hernando, head of the Cesce Country Risk Unit, and Ricardo Santamaria, director of Country Risk and Debt Management at Cesce.

In the first of them, titled A new globalization? From free trade to geopolitics, María José Chaguaceda focuses on analyzing the changes that geopolitical tensions, the growing competition between the main economic actors and the shocks in supply chains are causing in commercial relations as we know them.

Among his conclusions, Chaguaceda assures that the phenomenon of deglobalization understood as disconnection is "unviable" and predicts a “gradual and limited” trend towards greater regionalization in supply chains. "Global cooperation and governance will continue to be indispensable to address the challenges present in this scenario and achieve an appropriate balance between economic interests, security and sustainable development," he concludes.

Below is the article Digitalization: from semiconductors to AI. The fight to control the future, signed by Lucia Bonet, makes an exhaustive review of the appearance of semiconductors, a key invention for the development of electronics and personal computing that gave rise to the Third Industrial Revolution. “No other industry like that of chip manufacturers has benefited in such an obvious way from collaboration between countries, whether intellectually or commercially,” he noted.

The third article, The demographic challenge: Global impact of the second demographic transition, is in charge of Rafael Loring and in it it addresses the magnitude and significance of the demographic changes that have already begun to occur and that will intensify in the coming decades in social, political and economic terms in both developed and emerging countries.

The author predicts that in the coming years we will see governments intensify policies to stimulate birth rates, although probably with little success. It also points out that governments will opt for migration policies as "a medium-term solution for developed countries", but that they can entail enormous difficulty of assimilation for the receiving countries if it is carried out with the magnitude necessary to alleviate the drop in birth rate. In the final section of his conclusions, Loring It points as hope to technological changes as a possible way to adapt to these demographic changes without great economic costs and points to the new ideas conceived by artificial intelligence to try to make up for the harmful deficit in human innovation.

Lastly, the piece Lidia Candal, titled Strategic Diplomacy: Africa, a game board, It is about how the current reconfiguration of international alliances is reflected in the African continent, which has become the geographic scene of the tug-of-war between the great powers.

The geopolitical clash of United States and China, the isolation of Russia After the invasion of Ukraine and the push that many nations are making to move towards a multipolar world order are some of the reasons why this struggle for African support and resources has been precipitated.

The author points out that understanding these dynamics is essential to anticipate the impact they will have on both Africa as in the rest of the world, taking into account the diplomatic, strategic, commercial and material value of the continent. For this, the strategies of USA and France, with a traditional presence in the region, compared to those that continue China and Russia, which in recent years have redoubled their efforts to expand their influence in the territory.