El world trade has demonstrated a remarkable resilience and is expected to maintain sustained growth over the next five years, even exceeding expectations from the previous decade. This is revealed by the DHL Trade Atlas 2025 report, produced by DHL in collaboration with Stern School of Business at New York University, a comprehensive analysis of global trends that offers an optimistic outlook in a context of geopolitical tensions and possible tariff increases.
The report highlights that, despite the re-election of the US president Donald Trump and the uncertainty about their trade policies, global trade has demonstrated surprising resilience. Even if all the duty proposed and retaliation occurs, world trade is expected to continue growing, albeit at a slower pace.
Growth higher than the last decade
Forecasts indicate that merchandise trade will grow at a compound annual growth rate of 3,1% between 2024 and 2029, a slightly higher pace than in the previous decade. “The DHL Trade Atlas 2025 report shows very encouraging data. There remains significant growth potential for trade in advanced and emerging economies worldwide,” he stated. John pearson, CEO of DHL Express.
Even if all the tariffs proposed during President Trump's election campaign are implemented and countries retaliate, trade is expected to continue growing, but at a slower pace.
New leaders in global trade
India, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines emerging as the leaders in trade growth, standing out both for the speed and magnitude of their expansion. India is positioned as the third country with the highest forecast for absolute trade growth, behind only China and the United States.
As for the Spain, the report forecasts a 2,4% growth in global trade until 2029. In 2024, the country managed $878.580 billion in world trade, with a predominance of imports the exportsThe main export products include vehicles, industrial machinery, electrical equipment, mineral fuels, and pharmaceutical products.
Long-distance trade and adaptation
Despite the trend toward nearshoring, the report reveals that long-distance trade has reached record levels, with an average distance of 5.000 kilometers. Furthermore, the proportion of trade within major regions has decreased, indicating greater globalization.
The report also analyses the impact of geopolitical tensionsNoting that while trade between the US-China ally blocs declined in 2022 and 2023, these declines were smaller and did not continue into 2024. The US and China have reduced their mutual trade, but not enough to speak of a significant "decoupling".
The DHL Trade Atlas 2025 is presented as a valuable resource for business leaders, policymakers, and academics, offering detailed analysis and profiles of nearly 200 countries and territories.
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