Global trade temporarily rebounds amid tariff fears, slowdown looms

However, a new report from the World Trade Organization (WTO) suggests that this momentum could be short-lived, with a slowdown projected for the second half of the year.

El WTO Goods Trade Barometer reached 103,5, exceeding the 102,8 recorded in March. A value above 100 indicates above-trend trade volumes, reflecting the strong activity observed. However, the leading index of new export orders fell to 97,9, falling below the 100 threshold that marks growth. This contraction in export orders suggests an imminent slowdown in the global trade.

The possibility of a more severe trade contraction, such as the reactivation of reciprocal US tariffs or broader global trade uncertainty, remains a concern.

According to the Barometer, the current rebound is primarily attributed to importers stockpiling, seeking to mitigate the impact of future tariffs. Once these stocks are reduced, import demand is likely to decline, tempering trade growth.

Despite the decline in export orders, most other components of the barometer have performed above trend. The air freight (104,3) and container (107,1) indices reflect an increase in freight movements. The automotive sector (105,3) also shows strength in its production and sales, while electronic components (102,0) have recovered after a weak performance in 2023 and 2024. The raw materials index (100,8) shows modest but positive growth.

The report of World Trade Outlook and Statistics of the WTO Secretariat, published on April 16, 2025, projected trade growth of 2,7% by 2025 under a low-tariff scenario. However, with the tariff policies current, the projection was adjusted to a contraction of -0,2%. Although recent events such as trade agreements between US and China, and US and UK, along with increased tariffs on steel and aluminum, have generated slight fluctuations, the overall outlook remains at a modest 0,1%.