Global trade: Artificial intelligence boosts 2025, but 2026 brings tariff concerns

 

As a result of these trends, economists at the World Trade Organization (WTO) have revised their forecast for merchandise trade growth in 2025 upward to 2,4% , a significant jump from the 0,9% projected in August. However, this optimism is tempered by a less promising outlook for 2026, for which the projection has been drastically reduced to just 0,5% (down from the previous 1,8%).

 

The rise of AI and tariff anticipation

 

The WTO's "World Trade Outlook and Statistics" update highlights two key factors behind the strong performance in the first half of the year: stockpiling and robust trade in AI products such as semiconductors, servers, and telecom equipment.

 

AI-related products drove nearly half of global trade expansion in terms of value, with a year-on-year increase of 20% . This trend spanned the entire digital value chain, with Asia showing particularly strong performance in exports of these goods.

 

In addition, in North America, growth was driven by anticipation of imports in sectors such as machinery and motor vehicles. Companies rushed to import ahead of the higher tariffs expected to take effect in August, leading to an increase in the inventory-to-sales ratio.

 

Resilience and warnings for 2026

 

WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala welcomed the “measured response of countries to tariff changes in general” and the growth of South-South trade , which increased by 8% year-on-year, exceeding the 6% growth in global trade. The Director-General emphasized: “Trade resilience in 2025 is largely due to the stability provided by the rules-based multilateral trading system.”

 

However, Okonjo-Iweala issued a warning against complacency. Merchandise trade growth will slow significantly in 2026, when the full effects of the global economic slowdown and new tariffs are felt.

 

The WTO notes that rising input prices and slowing shipments already suggest that inflation could pick up by the end of 2025, as accumulated stockpiles in the sectors most affected by tariffs are reduced. The downward revision to 2026 suggests that the impact of these restrictive measures has been postponed by a year. The main downside risk to the forecasts remains the spread of trade-restrictive measures and political uncertainty.

 

As for trade in services , a slowdown in export growth is also expected, going from 6,8% in 2024 to 4,6% in 2025 and to 4,4% in 2026, indirectly affected by the links with trade in goods.