Global trade, driven by Artificial Intelligence in 2025, but 2026 brings tariff concerns

As a result of these trends, economists at the World Trade Organization (WTO) have revised upwards their Merchandise trade growth forecast for 2025 at 2,4%, a significant jump from the 0,9% projected in August. However, this optimism is tempered by a less rosy outlook for 2026, for which year the projection has been drastically reduced to just 0,5 % (compared to 1,8% previously).

The rise of AI and tariff anticipation

The WTO's updated "World Trade Outlook and Statistics" highlights two key factors behind the strong performance in the first half of the year: stockpiling and the strong trade in AI products such as semiconductors, servers and telecommunications equipment.

AI-related products drove nearly half of the global trade expansion in value terms, with a year-over-year increase of 20 %This trend spanned the entire digital value chain, with Asia showing particularly strong performance in exports of these goods.

In addition, in North America, growth was driven by the anticipation of imports in sectors such as machinery and motor vehicles. Companies rushed to import ahead of the expected higher tariffs, which led to an increase in the stock-to-sales ratio.

Resilience and warnings for 2026

The Director General of the WTO, Ngozi Okonjo-IwealaHe celebrated the "measured response of countries to tariff changes in general" and the growth of South-South trade, which increased by 8% year-on-year, surpassing 6% of global trade. The Director-General emphasized: "Trade resilience in 2025 owes much to the stability provided by the rules-based multilateral trading system."

However, Okonjo-Iweala warned against complacency. Merchandise trade growth is set to slow significantly in 2026, when the effects of the cooling of the global economy and new tariffs let themselves be fully felt.

The WTO notes that rising input prices and slowing shipments already suggest that inflation could pick up in late 2025 as stockpiles in sectors hardest hit by tariffs are drawn down. The downward revision for 2026 suggests that the impact of these restrictive measures has been postponed by a year. The main downside risk to the forecast remains the spread of trade restrictive measures and political uncertainty.

Regarding trade in services, a slowdown in export growth is also expected, from 6,8% in 2024 to 4,6% in 2025 and 4,4% in 2026, indirectly affected by ties to merchandise trade.