The company Crédito y Caución has published its recent report Energy Outlook, where it points out that the global energy transition faces a structural decelerationThis phenomenon postpones the peak demand for oil and gas, keeping fossil fuel prices at high levels for a longer period than originally anticipated, which directly impacts the macroeconomic stability of importing nations.
External vulnerability and pressure on trade balances
According to the credit insurer's analysis, economies that depend on imported energy can no longer rely on a downward trend in gas and oil prices to balance their budgets. Current geopolitical tensions, especially the conflict in the Middle Easthave exacerbated this exposure. The report identifies a critical group of 63 countries whose net fuel import invoices exceed 4% of its Gross Domestic Product (GDP), mainly affecting emerging markets with pre-existing current account deficits.
Niels de Hoog, senior economist at AtradiusIt highlights the seriousness of the situation: With the slowdown of the energy transition and the development of the war in Oriente MedioMany emerging economies are once again at the mercy of fluctuations in global oil prices. The structural reduction in fuel dependence is still too modest to protect them.
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Key data on the energy impact on importing economies
The most relevant figures and projections drawn from the analysis are detailed below. Crédito y Caución on the energy outlook towards 2035:
| Economic/Energy Indicator | Data / Impact |
|---|---|
| Countries with energy bills > 4% of GDP | 63 nations |
| Projected deterioration in current account balance | More than 50% of countries analyzed (2035) |
| Countries identified as highly vulnerable | Túnez, Pakistán y Líbano |
| Main factor in reducing dependency (historical) | Energy efficiency (declining) |
Weakness in electrification and efficiency
Historically, the Energy Efficiency It has been the driving force behind reducing dependence on hydrocarbons. However, the report predicts that these gains will weaken. At the same time, the deployment of renewable energy It is not enough to displace the demand for fossil fuels, due to the slow electrification of key sectors such as:
- Heavy transport and long-distance logistics.
- Processes of industry intensive.
- Pumping and calefacción on a large scale.
Faced with this scenario, Crédito y Caución It urges governments to adopt resilience strategies that go beyond investment in renewables. It recommends strengthening export capacity and improving... competitiveness and reduce dependence on other non-energy-related imports to offset the energy surcharge.
Key points and frequently asked questions about the Energy Outlook
Why is the risk increasing for energy-importing countries?
Because the transition to clean energy has slowed down, these countries are forced to continue buying fossil fuels at high prices for longer than expected, affecting their external financial stability.
Which countries are in the most critical situation according to the report?
Those emerging markets with previous deficits, specifically highlighting the cases of Túnez, Pakistán y Líbanowhere the impact on the balance of payments will be most severe towards 2035.
What measures should the affected economies take?
In addition to promoting domestic electricity generation, they must improve their commercial competitiveness, boost their exports, and diversify their supplies to reduce vulnerability to global market fluctuations.
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