The German company believes it will begin marketing the new UMTS terminals in the third quarter of 2003, which contrasts with the forecasts of other competitors, who place the start of the new technology at the end of this year, although it is true that a delay from these forecasts towards the first quarter of 2003 is discounted.
These statements must be considered in the context of the IPO of its mobile subsidiary T-Mobile in the second half of this year (in fact, it is the main element for reducing its debt of more than €60 billion), so it would be interested in launching the new technology as soon as possible. On the other hand, a postponement of the IPO increases the likelihood of a reduction in the number of operators in that country (six licenses were granted), either through consolidation or withdrawal from the market.
DT is the leading operator in Germany, although closely followed by Vodafone, with a market share of approximately 40% each (slightly higher for DT). Monitoring the German market will be crucial in the coming months as a showcase for other markets. With greater competition, Germany will be the first to introduce the new technology. Furthermore, operators will begin building their UMTS networks this summer, as they are required to have 30% of the population covered by 2003. Additionally, in July of this year, Mobilcom, an operator in which Orange holds a 28,5% stake and which holds a UMTS license, will have to refinance part of its debt (approximately €5.000 billion).
If this scenario of the new technology launching in the third quarter were to materialize, the most affected companies would be telecommunications equipment companies and operators without a customer base.
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