Trump's "Liberation Day" shakes up global trade: iBanFirst analysis reveals uneven tariff impact

 

iBanFirst, a leading provider of international payment solutions, has broken down the implications of these measures, revealing a picture of uneven impact across major economies.

 

The administration Trump, in a turn that has surprised the markets, has opted for a selective approach in the imposition of tariffs, contrary to initial threats from a global trade war. According to iBanFirst calculations, the average tariff rate on US imports will rise from 4.8% to 10.5%. While this increase is significant, it remains below the 16.7% projected during Trump's election campaign, suggesting a slowdown in the implementation of his economic agenda.

 

iBanFirst analysis reveals that The impact of these tariffs will be disproportionate among the main trading partners of United States. China It stands as the most affected country, with an average tariff increase from 10.2% to 29.5%. This increase, although substantial, is less severe than the 60% tariff that had been previously considered.

 

"It will undoubtedly be even more difficult for countries that were hardly subject to US tariffs. This is the case for..." Mexico and CanadaThe tariffs will increase from 0,1% and 0,2%, respectively, to 20% and 25%. This level of taxation will have a significant impact on these two countries, which are deeply integrated into the US economy,” states the report generated by the financial analysis firm.

 

China will be the most affected country, with an average tariff increase of 10,2% to 29,5%. Mexico and Canada follow, with significant increases of 0,1% and 0,2% to 20% and 25%, respectively.

 

In contrast, exporters of the European Union, including the Spanish, will face a more modest tariff increase, of around 2% on average. "Although any increase in trade barriers is unwelcome, this adjustment is much less severe than that being imposed on countries like China, Mexico or Canada“For exporters based in the EU, including Spanish ones, the new tariffs are manageable: they may lead to some price adjustments or slight pressure on margins, but are unlikely to seriously disrupt their business activities,” he says. Luis Miguel García de Águeda, Country Manager for Spain at iBanFirst.

 

The iBanFirst report also addresses the issue of the revenue these tariffs will generate for the US federal government. While the Trump administration anticipates "trillions of dollars over a decade"Experience with China suggests that companies' ability to adapt could mitigate these revenues. Tariffs are estimated to generate between $40.000 billion and $45.000 billion annually, a significant amount, but insufficient to drastically reduce the US deficit.

 

Implications and Perspectives:

 

The implications of these tariffs are broad and complex. While the immediate impact may be quantifiable, the long-term effects are more difficult to predict. Market reactions, consumer substitution strategies, and corporate circumvention are all factors that could alter the global trade landscape.