The US under scrutiny: protectionism, the struggle with China and the impact on Spanish foreign trade

María José Hernando, expert of CESCEHe emphasized that the current protectionist policy, although associated with Donald TrumpIt is "the consequence or the ripe fruit of a trend that has been developing for several years now." The session, moderated by carlos dalmauThe Director of International Affairs for the organization also had the participation of Alejandro Arola, President of Arola Group, who focused on the technical aspects of the tariffs.

The analysis of the situation in the United States began by focusing on the underlying causes of its protectionist shift. María José Hernando of CESCE insisted that the Trump phenomenon must be understood within the context of a fundamental struggle: "It is especially related to the struggle with China for international economic leadership and, above all, for international technological leadership." She recalled that the first protectionist measures against China began under Obama and that the Biden administration is even reinforcing the measures taken by Trump.

The global trend: from efficiency to economic security

The CESCE speaker linked US policy to a global trend driven by recent events. The pandemic and the war of Ukraine revealed the "vulnerabilities" of the global supply chainsThis has led economies to rethink their priorities. In this sense, the new currency is security: "From that moment on, we all started talking about—and the concept will sound familiar—economic security. We have to start talking about economic autonomy instead of economic efficiency."

With regards to foreign policy Hernando described the Trump administration as "much more protectionist" and "more aggressive," employing "coercion and its considerable economic power to get what it wants as a negotiating tactic." According to the expert, this logic stems from the belief that the United States has been providing free services (such as NATO security and the dollar as the reserve currency) while its economic liberalization has resulted in a "gigantic trade deficit."

The impact and tariffs on the US economy

Hernando insisted that it is still too early to know if Trump is achieving his objectives. He commented that, while the administration is signing executive orders at a rapid pace, it is still difficult to assess the final effect. His goal is to "strengthen the American economy, reindustrialize the American economy, and attract investment back to the American economy." Although some increase in tariff revenue has been observed, analysts doubt it will be enough to offset the revenue loss from the implementation of the One Beautiful Bill (tax cuts for higher incomes).

The US economy has performed "significantly better than expected," refuting initial forecasts that predicted a recession. Growth projections for 2025 and 2026 are around 2%, a stable level. This positive performance is partly due to "advance purchases made by the United States" in anticipation of tariffs, as well as strong investment in the technology and artificial intelligence sectors.