The general director of the Banco de España, David López Salido, presented this on January 14, 2026 in Córdoba The macroeconomic projections for 2025-2027, highlighting the robustness of the national economy in the face of the global environment, the lower incidence of tariffs Estados Unidos on UE and the dynamism of domestic consumption.
External resilience and stock market strength in the face of US trade policy.
During the day held at the Facultad de Derecho y Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, López Salido He analyzed the international context, marked by trade uncertainty. The executive emphasized that the tariff increase imposed by Estados Unidos has had a minor impact on the Unión Europea compared to other global competitors. This factor, coupled with a 6% reduction in the price of oil since September, creates a scenario of resilient global economic activity.
In the financial sector, the performance of the Spanish markets has been outstanding. "The Spanish stock market has increased by more than 40% in 2025", has stated López Salidoattributing this boost primarily to the banking sector. Furthermore, the country's solvency has strengthened: the sovereign spread of España It falls below 50 points, a figure lower than that recorded by economies such as Francia e Italia.
GDP growth and trade balance imbalance
The report places España among the fastest-growing countries in the eurozone. Data for the third quarter of 2025 confirm an advance of GDP of 0,6% quarter-on-quarterThis was driven by very dynamic household consumption, especially in durable goods. Productive investment also accelerated thanks to machinery and intangible assets.
However, from the perspective of foreign tradeA divergence is observed: a "Poor performance of goods exports compared to the dynamism of imports"For the end of 2025 and the horizon of 2026, the key factors are:
- Higher GDP growth supported by domestic demand.
- Investment will grow at a faster rate than GDP.
- Improvement in the public balance in 2026 due to the economic cycle, although with a forecast of deterioration in 2027 due to the increase in public salaries.
Key Data: National Macroeconomic Indicators
| Indicator | Data / Forecast | Comments |
|---|---|---|
| GDP growth (Q3 2025) | 0,6 % | Quarter-on-quarter. Q4 forecast: 0,6%-0,7% |
| Spanish Stock Exchange (2025) | + 40 % | Driven by the banking sector |
| General Inflation (Nov) | > 3% | 1,1 points higher than in the Eurozone |
| Food Inflation | 3,1 % | Moderate energy at 4,6% |
| Public Deficit (2026) | 2,1 % | Forecast of reduction |
Inflation and the labor market: 2026-2027 outlook
The supervisory body warns of an upward revision of inflation for 2026, placing it at around 2%. Currently, headline inflation has exceeded 3%, with a differential of 1,1 percentage points compared to the euro area, while core inflation rebounded to 3% in November. López Salido He clarified that lower inflation is expected in 2027 due to the transfer of the system ETS2 and 2028.
Regarding employment, the unemployment rate continues its downward trend in a context of a growing working-age population. The director general was received at the event by the dean. José J. Albert Márquez and the vice dean Mercedes Luque Vílchez.
Regional focus: Andalusia and the weight of cooperative credit
In territorial analysis, Andalucía It shows a remarkable acceleration. After growing by 3,7% in 2024, forecasts for 2025 point to 3,1%. Although the Survey on Business Activity (EBAE) indicates a turnover slightly below the national average in the final stretch of 2025, employment shows greater dynamism, hampered only by the availability of labor and the price of energy.
One relevant fact for the financial sector is the strong penetration of credit unions in the region, especially in less densely populated areas. Its market share in loans is significantly higher than the Spanish average.
Credit Union Market Share (Loans)
| Territory | Market Share (%) |
|---|---|
| National Media | 9,6 % |
| Media Andalucía | 14,7 % |
| Almería | 35,8 % |
| Jaén | 23,3 % |
| Granada | 22,5 % |
| Córdoba | 12,4 % |
Finally, Ana Estebanresponsible for Data Laboratory of the Bank of Spain (BELAB), has presented to the research community the possibilities of this tool, which offers detailed microdata on companies, the foreign sector, financial markets and payment systems, vital for precise economic analysis.
Key points and frequently asked questions about the Bank of Spain's projections
How does US tariff policy affect Spain according to the report?
The impact of the tariff increase of Estados Unidos is lower for the UE than for other competitors. The Spanish economy is showing resilience and its sovereign spread remains below 50 points, improving on the figures of Francia e Italia.
What are the inflation forecasts for the period 2025-2027?
Higher inflation is projected for 2025 and 2026 (around 2%, currently above 3% overall) due to strong wage growth and consumption. However, a moderation is expected in 2027 due to delays in the implementation of [the plan/program/etc.]. ETS2 up to 2028.
What role do imports and exports play in the current GDP?
While domestic demand and consumption of durable goods drive GDP, the external sector shows uneven performance: exports of goods have performed poorly compared to the strong dynamism of imports.
Any questions about this news?
Talk to Coexia, the AI of the foreign trade
